Russia Monitor Monthly 08/2022
Content
France’s TotalEnergies And Its Activities In Russia
Western businesses quit Russia––some do it quickly while others just pretend to withdraw from the country. A fierce controversy recently broke out over France’s TotalEnergies and its activities on Russia, soil, according to French daily Le Monde.
As Russian Offensive Stalled, Ukraine Is Running Out Of Time To Counterattack
Russian forces have not made significant territorial gains in Ukraine since early July. The war in Ukraine has settled into trench warfare. Any major shifts if such occur might take place alongside the southern front.
Bulgaria’s Ready To Negotiate Gas Deal With Russia’s Gazprom After Government Changes
Russia cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria, back then under the pro-Western government of Kiril Petkov, back in April. The authorities in Sofia refused to bow to Russian pressure and started buying gas elsewhere. However, the government of Petkov, who refused Russia’s demands in April, lost a vote of no confidence and a new caretaker government has been appointed by Rumen Radev, the country’s pro-Russian president. The bottom line is that Bulgaria says it wants to resume talks with Russia’s Gazprom on the latter’s terms.
Putin Signs Showy Decree To Increase Size Of Armed Forces
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 25 to increase the size of Russia’s armed forces by 137,000 to 1.15 million. The document is a propaganda tool that will scarcely improve the Russian situation in Ukraine. It is unlikely to add that many people as Russia is struggling notably with a poor demographic situation. Adding more servicemen does not mean an increase in combat strength, in particular in Russia.
Russian Hydrocarbons Export: Big Profit Today, Big Trouble Tomorrow
Russia is expected to pocket $337.5 billion this year on energy exports alone, according to an economy ministry document seen by Reuters news agency. But a boom in energy earnings only partly compensates for the damage from sanctions to such industries as automotive, IT, and banking. Russia is becoming an even more resource-intensive country, thus economically uncompetitive and dependent on the energy policy of other players.
Russia Stages Air and Sea Provocations, Teasing Western Nations
Recent weeks have seen a series of incidents that Russia provoked mostly in the air, both in the Baltic Sea and the Pacific. Russia, which struggles in Ukraine, is staging provocations near countries it considers hostile. A similar chain of incidents has not been reported in months.
Myanmar To Import Russia Oil
Not surprisingly, Myanmar is set to join a growing list of countries that are warming up to Russia’s oil imports. Both regimes have forged close cooperation. In addition, Myanmar suffers from a gasoline shortage while Russia is seeking to send its energy elsewhere. Last but not least, Myanmar is yet another ready market in Asia that matters most for Russia as Western states shunned Russian energy imports.
Lviv Summit Confirms Erdogan’s Diplomatic Offensive
A meeting that brought the presidents of Ukraine and Turkey and the UN Secretary-General corroborates successful diplomatic efforts, an example of which was a deal to resume grain exports. The one who serves a pivotal role is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Attacks In Crimea Mark New Front For War In Ukraine
Recent Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russian-occupied Crimea have revealed Moscow’s weak grip on the peninsula. Much has been said about a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region. But the Ukrainian military can target the enemy elsewhere. Their aim consists in recapturing the sways of land in the south that Russia seized past February 24 and perhaps in efforts to retain Crimea. In a worst-case scenario, the Russians could strive for keeping control of the peninsula, both military and economically.
Armenia’s Pashinyan Questions Russian Peacekeeping Presence
A new incident on the boundary between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh sparked a strong response from the latter country. The authorities in Baku have long frowned upon the Russian military presence in the region. Now Armenia joins those complaints, but for different reasons, and this could weaken the Russian military in Nagorno-Karabakh or even make them leave.
Warsaw Institute
