Russia Monitor Articles
Russia-Ukraine War Empowers Chechnya’s Kadyrov
The leader of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov has never got on well with federal strongmen, in particular FSB officers. His radical stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Chechen involvement––quite brazen in social media outlets––consolidated his position in Moscow. Kadyrov’s recent visits to the Russian capital displayed both his ambition and influence.
Russia Remains Military Involved In War-Torn Syria
Still active in Syria, Russia has no intention of giving up in some war-torn places where it has gained an advantage over other players. Although Moscow redirected some troops from Syria to fight in Ukraine, Moscow still occupies a vital role in the Middle Eastern country. Israel and Turkey seem to have realized they both might fill in the void left by the Russian military.
Russian Oil Revenue Soar, Filling Moscow’s War Chest
The Kremlin has earned a record profit from oil although its invasion of Ukraine has continued for more than three months, triggering a set of punitive measures. Russia reports a drop in its exports to the European Union, but sells more to some alternative markets, notably India. Record-breaking oil prices mean more money to the Russian federal budget, also to sponsor the invasion of Ukraine. Oil-related revenues will edge up as the Russian finance ministry is planning to raise an export levy.
French, Italian, German Leaders Visit Ukraine, Mount Pressure On Kyiv
French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and German Chancellor headed to Kyiv, Ukraine, to check whether the Ukrainian authorities are eager to make concessions to Russia to end the war. Perhaps the three Western leaders––all of whom contact regularly Vladimir Putin––have submitted a list of conditions for entering peace talks with Russia.
Russia’s “Party of War” Claims Poland Is Moving To Take Ukrainian Territory
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland has emerged as a key supporter of Ukraine. It was enough for Moscow to consider the country hostile to the Kremlin. Russia is fearful of the Poland-Ukraine rapprochement, which resonated in what the country’s foreign minister, chief of the foreign intelligence agency, and the Security Council secretary have said publicly.
Kremlin’s Latin American Foothold: Nicaragua Authorizes Russian Military Deployment
The government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega authorized the deployment of Russian troops, planes, and ships to Nicaragua for training, law enforcement, or emergency response purposes. This is another confirmation of the Russia-Venezuela alliance that resembles the one in the Cold War era when Sandinistas remained staunch allies of the Soviet Union. Russia sees the Ortega regime as a member of the Cuba-Venezuela-Nicaragua club that targets the United States and its Latin American allies. Moscow has played the first two for intelligence and military purposes and now Nicaragua joins the club.
Donbas Operation: Counteroffensive On Other Fronts
Ukraine’s fierce defense of the eastern town of Severodonetsk is more strategic than tactical, which resembles the defense of Mariupol. Kyiv is taking advantage of the Russian strategy where politics prevails over purely military considerations. Moscow’s efforts to amass troops in Donbas allow Ukraine forces to perform more efficient strikes both in the east and south. So seizing the whole Luhansk region, which is politically important, may mean territorial losses elsewhere, notably in the south.
Russian Military Goals After 100 Days Of War
As what Moscow refers to as a “special operation” in Ukraine enters a new stage, Moscow has to lower expectations. Russian forces failed to target Ukraine from many sides and toppled the government in Kyiv. Then troops withdrew from Ukraine’s north and northeast to amass forces before the Donbas operation. The Russians remain far from occupying the eastern Ukrainian region. What it now seems is that Moscow is pushing to claim the region at any price and then suggest a truce. This is bad news for Ukraine. That is why the Ukrainian military now fiercely defends some chunks of the Luhansk region with Severodonetsk and the Donetsk region where both Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are located.
Draft Law On Conscripts Will Help Russia’s FSB
Russian conscripts will soon be able to sign contracts with the Federal Security Service, or the FSB. On May 17, the State Duma adopted a draft law in its first reading. Its updated versions will help the FSB add more specialists to the staff, according to Russian lawmakers. In fact, this just shows to what extent Russian power structures quarrel over staff. It also signals a decrease in the quality of Russian military staff for whom educational requirements have been lowered. The bill is little beneficial for the Russian army. The FSB could take its staff, also in the middle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when staff shortages are acute.
Some 90 Percent of Russian Companies Affected By Sanctions
The European Union has agreed on the sixth sanctions package that immediately cuts Russian oil imports to the bloc. As many as 87 percent of the polled entrepreneurs have been affected by sanctions imposed on Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. Most of them say they have adapted to the new real, but some are struggling to run business in Russia.
Russia’s Sequential Strategy For Donbas Offensive
While in Ukraine’s Donbas, Russian forces are following the same strategy as they did in Syria. Many officers have fought in the Middle Eastern country. Instead of simultaneous pursuit of multiple goals, the Russians have picked one goal and are now sparing no efforts to achieve it. Only after completing one, another goal could be identified. Although it has little propaganda effect, the strategy is actually efficient.
Russia’s Oil Output and Exports Amid Sanctions
The collapse in Russia’s oil output is inevitable, according to Russian officials and oil companies. In May, Russia is recovering after a robust decline in oil output and exports in March and April. Despite more modest production and fewer supplies abroad in 2022, Russia does not forecast any decline in profits, which is due to high tariffs.
Gazprom’s Record Earnings Mean High Dividends
Russian gas giant Gazprom said on May 26 its board was recommending a dividend of 52.53 roubles per share on its 2021 results. The company added an annual general meeting of shareholders is due to approve the dividend on June 30. The 2021 gas crisis was beneficial for the Russian gas giant and so is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices are still high while most EU countries still buy Russian-sourced gas even in forced to pay in roubles.
Russia Sends More Oil To Asian Countries
As Western nations are imposing sanctions on Russian oil while the EU is seeking to ban Russian crude totally, Moscow is looking for new market opportunities. It targets Asian countries that eagerly buy oil at record discounts.
Warsaw Institute
