During the first days of the invasion, Russian forces failed to capture any major cities. In fact, they are bypassing them while seeking to capture Ukraine’s two biggest cities, albeit each for a different reason. Russia is seeking to besiege the eastern city of Kharkiv because its forces cannot leave it behind while advancing on central Ukraine. The invading country is also trying to seize Kyiv to damage the morale of the Ukrainian army. According to the Pentagon, Russia has committed 75 percent of its amassed forces inside Ukraine. It is yet likely that Belarus will join Russian war efforts.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not moving as fast as Putin had assumed. It is not known whether the army was not sufficiently prepared or whether Russian top military brass did not want to tell the president they were unfit for the invasion. Perhaps the Russian offensive potential is not as impressive as many would think, also in Moscow. Invading a vast European country, inhabited by millions and priding itself with a high-morale army, is not the same as ruthless raids on civilians in Syria.

In the case of an invasion of Ukraine, Russia will be conducting its largest combined arms operation since the Battle of Berlin in 1945. As the first days of the war showed, the Russian army overestimated its capabilities while underestimating those of the enemy. This is not new for Russia. It was similar during the first war in Chechnya and also somewhat in Georgia.

The Russia-Ukraine war has in fact continued in Donbas since 2014. After the Kremlin officially recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in war-torn eastern Ukraine, it could have seemed that these two will turn into the military theater. Yet Putin decided otherwise. The military theatre in Donbas is fundamental for three reasons. Firstly, this is where Ukrainian forces have been for years now and are best prepared for defensive. Secondly, Russian forces could advance northwest, heading from Donbas towards Kharkiv to back soldiers that invade the city from the east. Thirdly, an assault group is advancing on Mariupol along the coast of the Sea of Azov to join troops moving forward from the Crimean peninsula.

Moscow did not achieve its goals on the first day of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces successfully slowed the Russian attack on land while the Russian air and rocket forces did not cripple Ukrainian command.

The Russian president could have stopped at recognizing the so-called people’s republics in occupied Donbas, saving his face and leaving the current crisis behind him. However, all indications are that the war with Ukraine was already planned last fall. Russia’s absurd demands to NATO and the US were only an excuse to strike Ukraine.