RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Russia Pours Money Into Iraqi Oilfields
Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft announced an increase in the production capacity in Iraqi Kurdistan – the region where it has invested most so far. Moscow’s ever-stronger position in the Kurdish energy industry offers Russia bigger leverage over the government in Baghdad.
Turmoil over TurkStream Loan: Is Serbian Leg of the Pipeline In Danger?
The Serbian government has made a last-minute decision to remove from the parliamentary agenda a bill envisaging state guarantees on loans for the construction of a Serbian leg of the Russian TurkStream gas pipeline. Media outlets make speculations over political pressure from the U.S. as the country opposes the pipeline while Serbia’s pro-Russian president says the venture will be ready on time.
OPEC+ Stutters Over Oil Cut Deal, Russia’s Sechin Forecasts Oil Prices
There are discrepancies over the situation on the energy market and forecasts for the next year, according to crude oil producers. This delayed the OPEC+ decision on what actions to perform throughout Q1 2021.
Moldova’s Sandu on Withdrawing Russian Forces from Transnistria
There are already first signs of Moldova’s political shifts after the Russian-preferred president Igor Dodon missed out on the vote. When discussing the potential solution to the Transnistria issue, the country’s president-elect Maia Sandu said it is absolutely necessary to remove Russian forces from the region.
Beijing is Betting on Large Agglomerations
Since the launch of its opening reforms of 1978, China has gone through a rapid urbanization process. This has resulted in an increase in the percentage of the population living in cities from less than 19% to over 60% in 2019, i.e. by more than 500 million people. Available projections indicate that this is only halfway to the point. At the centenary of the establishment of the PRC (2049) the rate of urbanization is expected to be between 75% and 80%.
Bulgaria Blocks EU Accession Negotiations with North Macedonia
North Macedonia, which is aspiring to join the European Union (EU), had to face the challenges of complicated relations with its neighbors, especially Greece and Bulgaria. These countries have difficulty in recognizing the statehood or ethnicity of their neighbor in the north and west respectively.
Sechin’s “Steel” Business Raises Serious Doubts
Rosneft seeks to build a large metal plant in the Far East to supply steel sheet to the Zvezda shipbuilding yard. The thing is yet that construction of the former will cost more than that of the latter. The mere idea raises severe doubts while possibly being another example of how Igor Sechin’s oil company might embezzle public money.
Russia As Hydrogen Giant? Deputy Energy Minister Reveals Optimism
Russia may soon export far bigger volumes of hydrogen than those outlined in a new government policy by 2035, according to the country’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin. The government blueprint forecasts 2 million tons of hydrogen per year.
Lavrov Visits Minsk: Russia Wants Lukashenko to Implement Commitments
During Sergey Lavrov’s latest visit to Minsk, both parties delivered some declarations on the solid Russian-Belarus alliance. However – and perhaps above all – with this trip, Russia sought to remind Alexander Lukashenko of what commitments he had made at the September meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
In the Interest of the Kremlin? Russian Oligarch Creates Far-Right Movement
Konstantin Malofeev has been around in Russian politics since at least 2014 when he gained notoriety for the vital role he had played in financing separatists in Crimea and Donbas. Now he is setting his sight on forming a social movement, possibly to help monitor far-right moods that have been on the rise in Russia.
China is Aging at a Rapid Pace
At the end of 2019, the number of Chinese citizens aged over 60 exceeded 254 million, which translates into 18.1% of the population. This number is expected to rise to 300 million in 2025 and 400 million in 2035. Among scientists there is a consensus that the process of population ageing will accelerate rapidly in the coming decades, resulting in a number of difficulties for the Chinese economic and pension systems.
Xi Jinping’s Vision for the BRICS Group
An online summit of the BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) was held on November 17. It was already the 12th meeting of this format, this time chaired by Moscow. Xi Jinping once again presented the Chinese vision of world order, calling for cooperation and maintaining multilateralism.
Nordics are Arming
New defence bills of Sweden and Norway will increase their defence budgets by 40% and 27%, respectively. Meanwhile, Finland’s purchase of new fighter jets and upgrade of its navy fleet will raise the expenditures by 54% between 2020 and 2021.
Russian Inspection: Lavrov, Shoigu Visit Armenia and Azerbaijan
Over the course of just one day, a high-ranking Russian government delegation traveled to Armenia and then Azerbaijan – the two Caucasus countries being now in an open conflict one with another. On the sidelines of the talks, the Russians discussed dispatching its troops to the Nagorno-Karabakh war theater, possibly with more servicemen to be sent than initially agreed.
Why Didn’t You Stop the Pandemic, Artificial Intelligence?
Supercomputers with enormous computing power and entire data centers clustered in public and private clouds solve thousands of complex mathematical problems and operations every day. So why didn’t they predict the current pandemic?
Bucharest Security Conference 2020
On November 13-14, 2020, the fifth edition of the Bucharest Security Conference was organized. It is the largest international conference in Romania that addresses the security developments and evolving threats on the Euro-Atlantic frontier and NATO’s decisions to respond to them. The Warsaw Institute was represented by the Executive Director, Tomasz Kijewski.
Xi Jinping at the Paris Peace Forum
The third Paris Peace Forum took place online on November 11-13, 2020. It was attended by Heads of State and Government, representatives of international organizations and members of civil society. The General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the conference.
Rosneft and Gazprom Neft Let Foreign Investors Enter Arctic Projects
Russian oil firms are desperate for money – and even more technology – to exploit oil-rich deposits in the country’s Far North, a situation that pushes them to look for foreign partners to invest in Arctic mining projects. Recent days brought such moves from two of Russia’s largest energy companies: Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific
The largest trading bloc in the world, accounting for 30% of world’s GDP, will be established when the agreement enters into force. The RCEP is a step forward in the economic integration of East, Southeast Asia and China, probably also being a step backwards in terms of plans for the economic decoupling of production chains.
From the History of the Belarusian Revolution
Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.
Warsaw Institute
