Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
Is Turexit Possible? Ankara’s New S-400s Is NATO’s Problem
Ankara’s determination to acquire Russian-made missile systems will enrage both its NATO peers and the U.S. But Erdogan hopes U.S. President will block Washington’s sanctions on Ankara. Yet this does not change the fact that outfitting the Turkish army with S-400 air defense missiles poses a threat to the security of the entire Alliance.
The European Union in Relation to World Powers
Rivalry of the US with Russia and China has induced a new course of change in the post-Cold War international order. Thus far, while Europe has participated in this rivalry to a limited extent, it has ambitions, however, to reassume a predominant role in the new, multipolar geopolitical order.
Taiwan – the Only Chinese Democracy
The Republic of China, better known as Taiwan, maintains official diplomatic relations with only 17 countries in the world . Notwithstanding, it is an important player in the geopolitical conundrum of Southeast Asia and the global economy. At the same time, Formosa is an example of a successful socio-political and economic transformation.
New Challenges in Central European Foreign Policy
The coming months will be a tough challenge in this dangerous time for Central European countries. Decisions taken by some capitals will define for many years the critical directions of development and the region’s position in the international arena.
Poland’s Much Needed and Economically Viable Infrastructure Investment
Central Eastern Europe is a region that offers promise of tremendous growth in air traffic. Economic forecasts indicate a high profitability of a new airport to be located between Warsaw and Łódź. Thoughtfully governed states tend to invest into large scale airport infrastructure. It is high time for Poland to join their ranks
Western Balkans Summit 2019
The Western Balkans summit in Poznan is the culminating point of the Polish Presidency in the Berlin Process. The meetings at the highest level were supplemented with two complementary events: the business component was presented during the Business Forum, and the civil society dimension was discussed during the Civil Society Forum.
Franco-German Strategic Dissonance
From the outside, everything seems to be perfectly fine. Politicians hold solemn anniversary celebrations. On January 22, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel ceremonially renewed their vows from the Elysée Treaty.
Visegrad Four Defense Cooperation: Years of Missed Opportunities
Since the establishment of the Visegrad Four in the early 1990s, most of the leaders and experts expected that, due to similar situations in almost all areas of life in those countries, the cooperation of V4 countries would naturally flourish in all domains, including the areas of security and defense. Since all V4 countries have Warsaw pact armies’ heritage and the same desire of Euro-Atlantic integration, their significant projects in the area of defense were expected to become successful.
Armenia: Pashinyan’s first year
One of the most critical turning points in modern Armenian history took place a year ago. In the spring, its citizens took to the streets in massive numbers and took power away from the Republican Party – a political vehicle which had stayed in power for two decades.
The Katyn Massacre – the Way to the Truth
‘The Katyn Massacre’ is a symbolic term. It refers to a series of mass murders of Poles imprisoned in special camps of Kozelsk, Starobilsk, and Ostashkov, and in prisons located in the so-called Western Ukraine and Western Belarus (Eastern Borderlands of the Second Polish Republic that were incorporated into the USSR after the Soviet invasion of Poland on September 17, 1939).
Chicago: America’s Bridge to Poland
In Chicago, we think of ourselves as a little piece of Poland. In some neighborhoods, you only hear Polish. The faithful come together at churches like Saint Stanislaus Kostka. We have a parade for Polish Constitution Day. And every summer, we celebrate the Taste of Polonia, with our kielbasa and pierogies, and we’re all a little bit Polish for that day. So being here with you, it feels like home.
Polish–Italian Relations: A Conservative Dream of a “Roman Form”
What has united the Poland and Italy in recent years were two factors. First, the opposition of the Polish and Italian governing parties to the disproportionate influence of German political culture and economic thinking, both of which are now dominating the current practice of the European institutions in particular, and second, greater openness to influence, and consequently, to the interests of the EU’s South.
Apparent Revolution – Presidential Elections in Ukraine
The results of the presidential elections in Ukraine are not so much a victory of Volodymyr Zelensky as much as the defeat of Petro Poroshenko. President Poroshenko was unable to make the election into a war plebiscite. Zelensky’s narrative dominated; a referendum on Ukraine’s leadership for the last five years. The defeat of Poroshenko signifies only shifts within the oligarchic system, instead of its defeat.
Why Is It Worthwhile To Lose Golden Horseshoes in Rome
This year we celebrate the 100th anniversary of the renewal of diplomatic relations between Poland and the Holy See. This anniversary is an excellent opportunity to reflect upon the role and importance of these relations, especially since religious issues remain a major topic of discussions – particularly in European countries.
New Foundation Board of the Warsaw Institute think tank
On June 17, 2019, a new Foundation Board of Warsaw Institute was established. The Board members are: Leszek Jesień – former Secretary of State in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister and associate professor at Collegium Civitas, Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse – Professor of the University of Warsaw and Warsaw Institute expert and Marcin Gawęda – President of The Warsaw Institute Foundation – our sister organization operating in the U.S.
One Golunov Doesn’t Make Summer
Staging provocations and framing people referred to as uncomfortable for the regime are a common practice in Russia under Vladimir Putin, with drugs and even child pornography being planted on the regime’s opponents. More and more people, including journalists, are sent behind bars on bogus charges while law enforcement agencies, prosecutors and courts follow the orders from the state authorities.
Russia’s Finance Tsar Don’t Like Oil Companies
Russia’s deputy prime minister and finance minister Anton Siluanov, who has recently grown in strength in domestic policy, clashed with the country’s favored financial sector. Given his increasing importance as a member of the government, it should be said that a signal was sent to Russian oil firms to watch their backs and even to support the Kremlin.
The New Commander of the Kaitseliit Did Not Please Russians
An experienced officer who is perfectly acquainted with Russians will become a commander of the voluntary, paramilitary organisation in Estonia. He was fighting with Russians when Estonia was regaining its independence. His long experience gained in the military intelligence and special operations will be helpful in the struggle with the Russian hybrid threat.
Sea Breeze in the Unstable Zone
This year Sea Breeze naval exercises are being held in a tense atmosphere. The situation in the Black Sea has not been so dangerous since 2014. This is the effect of the aggressive Russian politics – manifested by the so-called Kerch incident in November 2018. Currently, Moscow is stressing that the Black Sea Fleet is monitoring the activity of vessels taking part in the Sea Breeze 2019.
Osaka G20 Summit: Putin and Trump Fail to Get New Yalta
The Kremlin’s sole success is that the meeting between the two leaders took place at all, and Vladimir Putin should not count on anything else, which is what he might have known a few days ahead of bilateral talks with Donald Trump on Osaka. This was due to Putin’s mounting actions, a step that triggered off provocations in Cuba and Venezuela.
Warsaw Institute
