Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
Content
The Czechs may soon revise their approach to the Three Seas Initiative
Although the Czech Republic is a member of the Three Seas Initiative, it approaches this format of cooperation in the region with some reserve. There were many reasons for this, the most important of which turned out to be a pragmatic attitude towards the aforementioned geopolitical project. As part of it, no specific projects have been implemented so far, with the exception of annual summits and the creation of the Three Seas Fund.
Spaghetti Eastern – What does the Meloni Government mean for European politics?
In a recent interview with CNN News, President Biden warned of consequences for Saudi Arabia after the kingdom sided with Russian president Vladimir Putin in reducing OPEC+ oil production.
Biden Warns of ‘Consequences’ for Saudi Arabia Following Cuts in Oil Production
In a recent interview with CNN News, President Biden warned of consequences for Saudi Arabia after the kingdom sided with Russian president Vladimir Putin in reducing OPEC+ oil production.
Former Russian Spy Seeks Asylum In Estonia
The story behind a Russian spy is a blow to the reputation of Russian spy agencies. The former GRU officer was convicted in Estonia, where he later returned because he disagreed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Mass Russian Exodus Following the Partial Military Mobilization
On Wednesday, September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization of the Russian reserve forces to join the war in Ukraine. This, in turn, spurred a mass exodus from Russia of fighting age men and their families to neighboring countries.
As U.S. Midterm Elections Are Underway, Potential Effects on the War in Ukraine Remain Uncertain
The 2022 U.S. midterm elections are underway. In every state across the nation, Americans are voting for congressional representatives and senators to Congress. The elections come at a time where the United States has found itself in numerous predicaments that affect each citizen.
Oil Exports Rise in Venezuela
An increase in oil exports in September 2022 from Venezuela to China, Cuba, and Europe, among others, is expected to boost revenues for this Bolivarian country. This, however, does not improve Venezuela’s current social and economic situation. The 2020 sanctions imposed on this country by Western and Latin American countries have limited Venezuelan oil exports to global oil trade markets. The public receives food rations from the state, and the consumer market is still constrained due to the enforced sanctions.
Russia’s Lukoil Makes Record Profit
Russia’s biggest privately held oil company has made a record profit this year, doubling its last year’s figures. Lukoil will thus resume its belated dividend payouts for shareholders. Other Russian energy companies, including Gazprom, canceled dividend payouts amid the Russian war in Ukraine and its possible influence on the Russian energy sector. Only when oil and gas prices soared rapidly have they approved dividend payout.
Oil Production In Russia Will Fall, OPEC Says
According to the OPEC World Oil Outlook, Russia will see a drastic decline in its oil production in five years, followed by a sluggish recovery in the next eighteen years. Russian oil output will never rebound to its current levels, though. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) just released its latest annual World Oil Outlook. Oil will remain the most in-demand fuel until 2045, although its share in world consumption will begin to decline until early 2027, according to the OPEC World Oil Outlook.
Ukraine Launches Assault On The Strategic Kinburn Peninsula
Ukrainian troops are now fighting to liberate the Kinburn Peninsula to dislodge Russian troops from their stronghold. Located on the western bank of the Dnieper River, both the peninsula and its spit are of key strategic importance.
Europe divided by Russia. Is this the end of EU visas for Russians?
The case concerns the admission of citizens of the Russian Federation to the Schengen area. Should Russians be allowed to travel to European Union countries? Some countries are in favor of Russians being able to use the privilege of tourist visas and visit EU countries, while the rest are against this topic.
Ukraine’s Naftogaz Names New CEO
The Ukrainian government accepted the resignation of Yuriy Vitrenko as chief executive of the state energy company Naftogaz. Former government minister for communities and territorial development Oleksiy Chernyshov on November 3 took over as chief executive of Naftogaz, facing some challenges including government personnel reshuffles and the ongoing war with Russia.
Implications of Bulgaria Negotiating with Gazprom for Resuming Gas Imports
Bulgaria’s new interim Minister of Energy Rosen Hristov announced on the 22nd of August 2022 that the country will negotiate with Gazprom to restart the import of natural gas. The announcement comes after the government of Prime Minister Kiril Petkov fell at the end of June, and a new interim government has been appointed until the general election in October 2022. The announcement also follows the halting of gas deliveries to Bulgaria from the Russian Federation in April 2022 after the country refused to pay for the import in rubles. The move is seen as a reversal of the policies of the previous government, which sought to diversify gas deliveries by negotiating deals with Azerbaijan and the United States.
No Battle Of Kherson As Russia Ordered Troop Withdrawal
Ukrainian forces swept into the key city of Kherson as Russian troops retreated to the east. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said by the evening of November 12 Ukraine’s defense forces had liberated more than 60 cities, towns, and villages in Kherson Oblast. Russia has suffered a major defeat in the south of Ukraine, withdrawing from the western Kherson region––far more painful than in Kyiv and Chernihiv back in March.
The European Commission’s Guidelines regarding transit through Lithuania
On July 13, the Commission published new guidelines for the transit of Russian goods through Lithuania, allowing the transit of goods like steel and iron by train to Kaliningrad. The Commission’s point of view doesn’t seem to be randomly chosen, given the existing legal provisions. On a political level, however, the disagreement over the issue may have weakened Western unity against Russia.
Poland’s independence efforts under occupation during world war II
The project was co-financed by the National Heritage Institute of Roman Dmowski and Ignacy Jan Paderewski as part of the Patriotic Fund – edition 2022 Freedom in Polish, run by the Ministry of Culture and National Heritage.
Ukrainian Lawmakers Recognize Independence Of Chechen Republic Of Ichkeria
The Ukrainian parliament has declared Chechnya temporarily Russian-occupied land––a move that has little political significance but was a demonstrative effort, though. The Russian war is a sort of testing site for Chechen independence advocates and Kadyrov acolytes. Literally––Chechen battalions fight in Ukraine, siding with both Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Not Only Disputed Kuril Islands: Ties Between Russia, Japan Soured Considerably
First, the FSB detained a Japanese consul, then Moscow suspended a visa-free regime to travel off the Kuril Islands while Japan responded with a fresh batch of sanctions. Tensions have run high between Moscow and Tokyo. Both have a very slim chance to improve ties as Japan is aware of the Chinese threat and the Russian aggressive policy being two sides of the same coin.
Russia’s Energy Sales Suffer Amid Mild Weather And Chinese Lockdown Measures
Vladimir Putin is playing the energy crisis to force Western states and Ukraine into peace concessions. But the weather is not that much to the liking of the Kremlin as unusually mild temperatures tame European demand for gas. For its part, Chinese oil demand has shrunk amid new Covid lockdown measures across the country. Russia struggles to sell its energy, also amid the decline in prices.
Russia Responds To EU Price Caps By Reorienting Oil Exports
The Kremlin said that Russia would stop selling oil to countries that impose price caps on Russia’s energy resources. But now Moscow has to sell these gigantic supplies elsewhere. Russia is now facing a challenge to find new outlets for its oil supplies and create storage capacity.
Warsaw Institute
