Russia Monitor is a review of the most important events related to Russian internal and external security, as well as its foreign policies.
Date: 14 November 2022 Author: Grzegorz Kuczyński
Oil Production In Russia Will Fall, OPEC Says
According to the OPEC World Oil Outlook, Russia will see a drastic decline in its oil production in five years, followed by a sluggish recovery in the next eighteen years. Russian oil output will never rebound to its current levels, though. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) just released its latest annual World Oil Outlook. Oil will remain the most in-demand fuel until 2045, although its share in world consumption will begin to decline until early 2027, according to the OPEC World Oil Outlook.
OPEC analysts also said the share of oil in the global energy mix stood at 30 percent throughout 2020. The share of oil in the energy mix is foreseen to drop from 31 percent in 2025 to just below 29 percent by 2045. Meanwhile, the oil will continue to be a number one energy resource. Russia will see a decrease in its oil output figures amid the Western embargo on oil, fears of possible sanctions, and a weak internal market, according to OPEC analysts. But the situation will soon change as December 5 marks the final deadline for EU countries to ban all imports of Russian seaborne crude. Russian oil supply is expected to decline from 10.8 million bpd in 2021 to 10.1 million bpd by 2027, followed by a slight increase amid some Russian investments, including its major project in Eastern Siberia. It is about Vostok Oil, a Rosneft oil megaproject. The state-run oil firm is now in talks with foreign investors to get involved in the project. Vostok Oil is seeking to combine the biggest oil deposits in the north of Krasnoyarsk Krai. It is expected to produce up to 100 million tons of oil per year, or some 2 million barrels per day. By 2045 Russian oil output will have stood at 10.4 million bpd, yet still below the current level.
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