Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
Russia To Sell Petroleum Products To Pakistan Amid Saudi Fears
As the European Union introduced a ban on Russian oil, Moscow is diverting its crude from Europe to Asia. Now Russia will sell its crude to Pakistan. Moscow’s recent moves have deepened Saudi Arabia’s anxiety as the country has been the biggest oil supplier regionwide.
Turkey’s Erdogan Puts Pressure on Putin in Syria
Turkey has taken advantage of Russia’s uneasy situation amid its invasion of Ukraine, seeking to force Moscow into a pile of political and economic concessions. One example of that is Turkish efforts to block Russian oil tankers. The government in Ankara seems to prioritize its gains in Syria, notably in its clash with Syrian Kurds.
Hungary towards the Three Seas Initiative
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe regained the longed-for freedom and for the first time in centuries were able to independently decide about their future. In the 1990s, they set Euro-Atlantic integration as their overriding goal. However, one of the criteria for membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance was participation in regional cooperation formats. At that time, agreements were signed that established the Visegrad Group (V4) and the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), two cooperation platforms that laid the foundations for further mechanisms of Euro-Atlantic integration. In 2007, most Central European countries could already boast membership in the European Union and NATO.
After Bali: The Biden-Xi Talks
The rivalry between the US and China has been intensifying since 2018. And, since October 12, 2022, the White House’s reasserted National Security Strategy (NSS) has highlighted China as a direct and imminent threat.
The Battle for Bakhmut: Russia Did Not Learn a Lesson
Russia has thrown many troops and matériel into battle for a mid-sized city in the Donetsk region, an effort that resembles its strategy a couple of months ago in Severodonetsk. Ukraine has seemingly put a lot of effort into defending Bakhmut to involve as many Russian troops as possible. Losing a strategically insignificant city could be worth further advances, also in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Prospects for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the 21st century
We invite you to the next conference entitled “Prospects for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the 21st century”.
Potential worsening of U.S. – North Korea relations following Pyongyang’s successful test missile launch
In a recent stunt, North Korea launched an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) landing near Japanese waters. South Korean officials suspect the missile to be a Hwasong-17, Pyongyang’s most powerful ICBM.
Russia Doubled Piped Gas Supplies to China
From January to October 2022, Russia sent $3.1 billion worth of piped natural gas to China, a 182 percent increase from 2021, the General Administration of Customs of China reported.
Russia, Algeria Forge Close Military Partnership
Algeria is forging ever-growing military ties with Russia through joint military drills and substantial arms supply deals. Moscow has many assets that attract Algeria while collaboration with Algeria solidifies Russian influence in northern Africa.
CIA Chief Warns Russia’s SVR Director
Occasional high-level contacts between the United States and Russia are essentially due to Washington’s concerns over Moscow’s far-reaching movements in its war with Ukraine. The meeting between the director of the CIA and the head of the SVR foreign intelligence agency is part of the U.S. policy alongside the talks that took place beforehand between the U.S. national security advisor, the secretary of defense, and their Russian counterparts.
Lukoil Becomes Gazprom Neft’s Partner in Joint Venture with Repsol
The Russian energy market is seeing further reshuffles as Western companies quit the country, with domestic firms taking over their assets. Among those Russian companies is Lukoil, a privately run oil producer. Business decisions seem to have a political, rather than a financial background. Russia’s oil giant Lukoil has taken over assets in joint ventures between Western firms and Russian state-run companies.
CSTO Summit in Yerevan Was Bitter Pill for Putin
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Yerevan ended sourly as Armenia refused to sign a draft declaration due to the absence of a political assessment of Azerbaijan’s aggression against the territorial integrity of Armenia. This is yet another sign of Russia’s loosening grip on former Soviet republics.
Ukraine Says It Will Not Negotiate With Moscow
Western media recently reported that the United States exerted growing pressure on Ukraine to enter negotiations with Russia. This narrative is yet gone now. The government in Kyiv has adopted a firm stance on peace talks with Russia. Thus Washington must have revised its policy so far. Many signs are that the U.S. administration deemed it better to continue a Ukrainian offensive than to enter ceasefire talks with Russia.
Pope Francis Meets Ukrainian Catholic Leader at Vatican
Throughout the war, Pope Francis has been criticized by Ukraine for not directly condemning Moscow and Putin as well as not naming directly the invader and somewhat suggesting that Kyiv make concessions to appease the Kremlin. It is hence vital to emphasize the stance of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church whose followers are in communion with Rome.
Bulgaria Lets Russian Oil Refinery Export Despite EU Ban
Bulgaria’s government and Lukoil Neftochim Bulgaria have agreed that the country’s Black Sea refinery continues operating and exporting oil products to the EU until the end of 2024. This should provide a major boost to the Bulgarian budget. The deal makes Bulgaria a base for partially avoiding the European oil embargo.
Will Sanctions Force Russia to Rethink Its Oil Production Model?
Russian oil companies should invest more in developing smaller oil fields, according to Gennady Shmal, head of the Union of Russian Oil and Gas Producers. What might follow is a change in conditions for the benefit of small oil producers. Naturally, the Russian authorities did not become aware of their preferential treatment of large oil conglomerates, including tax breaks. Small companies were brought to the fore as the Russian energy sector is struggling amid sanctions imposed following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s War in Ukraine at a Standstill
The nature and tempo of the Russian war have not changed in recent weeks. The last major operation was the retreat of Russian forces from the western bank of the Dnieper River. Now wintry warfare looms in Ukraine while soaked steppes prevent both sides from launching an assault. But as winter is approaching, where potential attacks could now take place?
Russian State Duma Approves Bill to Ban “LGBT Propaganda”
Russian lawmakers passed a new law that bans what authorities call “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations.” The proposals prohibit sharing positive and even neutral information about lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people, and publicly displaying non-heterosexual orientations, referred to as “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations and (or) preferences, pedophilia, and sex change.” It is yet another element of the state narrative in which Moscow pushes conservative values.
Russia, West Locked in Crude War Amid Price Cap and Sanctions
The Kremlin is drafting a presidential decree that will prohibit Russian companies and any traders buying the nation’s oil from selling it to anyone that participates in a price cap, according to Bloomberg. The decree will forbid dealings with both companies and countries that join the price-cap mechanism. Meanwhile, a new date for EU talks is yet to be set even though the price cap mechanism is due to enter into force on December 5.
Russia Encounters Some Setbacks in Syria
The Russian military situation in Syria has become far more tense and complex due to three reasons. Firstly, Russia ordered the withdrawal of some of its troops despite its promise to back the al-Assad regime. Secondly, Turkey began targeting positions in the Russian-controlled region of Syria. Thirdly, Israeli forces have launched a bold campaign to target Syrian facilities linked to both Iran and Russia.
Warsaw Institute
