Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
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Russia Plans to Station Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have invoked the use of nuclear weapons more than once since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Putin recently said that Russia has struck a deal with neighboring Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, President Vladimir Putin told Saturday state broadcaster Rossiya 24.
Ukrainian Cabinet Appoints New Anti-Corruption Chief
The Ukrainian government has named a new director of the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) from among three candidates in a live-streamed meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers that met all the requirements set by both the European Union and financial institutions worldwide. It is to tackle corruption, which is a Western condition for its assistance to Ukraine. Despite that, Ukrainian media outlets and NGOs claim that a new head of the anti-corruption agency has links to Andriy Yermak, a powerful presidential aide.
How Long Will Russia-Ukraine War Last?
Russia is ready to continue the war in Ukraine for another two years, the chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence said, adding sanctions could make put an end to the war earlier than expected. A similar forecast had been delivered by Lithuania’s military intelligence outlet.
Russia Delivers More LNG Supplies to Europe
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson has proposed further reducing demand for the bloc along with a plan to completely phase out Russian LNG supply to Europe, saying companies should not renew long-term contracts once current ones end.
Schwedt Refinery Remains Within Germany’s Government’s Mandate
Germany’s Federal Administrative Court threw out a case brought by Russian oil company Rosneft against Berlin’s move to place its German subsidiaries under trusteeship and take control of the Schwedt refinery. The German government seized control of Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing last September. Both had a controlling stake in a refinery in Schwedt in eastern Germany.
IMF Approves Loan Package for Ukraine
The International Monetary Fund said its executive board had approved a four-year $15.6 billion loan program for Ukraine, the IMF said in a statement on March 21. The loan is the first major conventional financing program approved by the IMF for a country involved in a large-scale war.
Ukraine Expels Pro-Russian Clergy from Kyiv Pechersk Lavra
Orthodox monks who had been ordered out of a monastery in Kyiv refused to leave as a deadline to vacate the complex expired back on March 29. Metropolitan Pavlo, an abbot of the monastery, said that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) would not leave the site pending the outcome of a lawsuit to stop the eviction. Force will not be used to evict representatives of the UOC from the Pechersk Lavra in Kyiv, according to the Ukrainian authorities. But they have more tools––as they can ban the church.
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive: Possible Directions and Obstacles
Theoretically, Ukraine could set the stage for possible new offensives by both sides, but its forces are more likely to secure just one side instead, mostly to break through Russian lines of defense. Such a move could help Ukraine reap more territorial gains and reduce personnel losses.
Russian Oil Revenues and Exports Fall Amid Sanctions
February crude oil and product exports averaged 7.5 million barrels a day, the lowest since September 2022 and a drop by 0.5 million bpd from January 2023. The flow of money into the country from international oil sales fell to $11.6 billion in February, down 43 percent from a year earlier and down $2.7 billion from January 2023.
“Ideology of Conservatism”: Putin Reportedly Readies For 2024 Re-Election
The Kremlin has started preparing for the 2024 presidential campaign based on the theme of conservative isolationist ideology, seeking to get a better score than in 2018.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Soars Considerably As Energy Revenues Drop Sharply
The beginning of this year looks gloomy for the Russian federal budget. Russia’s monthly fiscal deficit reached a record high amid the EU-imposed ban on seaborne crude oil exports and the increasing operational cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government is not likely to stick to the budget nor will it plug a budget shortfall. However, this does not prompt any disaster for Russia––at least now.
Putin Plans to Deploy Nuclear Weapons to Belarus: Political Move Not Military One
Russia will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, President Vladimir Putin said. Not surprisingly, Moscow has long been bracing for that move. Furthermore, it is unlikely to change the military situation as Russia has already deployed nuclear weapons to its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. Putin’s remarks in the interview come as a political move amid its war against Ukraine and close ties to Belarus.
Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 2
It has been seven months into the battle of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have suffered significant losses and made no progress. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the combative boss of Russia’s Wagner private military group, had hoped seizing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut would bring him a moment of glory but now believes his mercenaries are no longer capable of capturing Bakhmut. Perhaps this is where Russia is poised to suffer a heavy defeat in a Ukrainian counteroffensive campaign. But this is exactly what happens when military strategies give way to political calculations.
The U. S. debate on banning TikTok returns
Following the recent shooting of a Chinese Balon, we see another instalment of an international rivalry between the U. S. and China. This time, once again, the main line of disagreement becomes Tik Tok.
Bakhmut: A Russian Trap. Part 1
Many believed in mid-March the fate of Bakhmut was sealed, with the city doomed to fall. Yet after Ukrainian forces pulled out of the city’s east and safeguarded supply lines south of Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to capture it for a long time now. Moscow seems to have understood this and thus Russian forces reduced the intensity of their assaults as they move troops elsewhere.
Syrian President Assad Arrives in Moscow Amid Ukrainian Sanctions and Russian Provocations in Syria
The visit of the Syrian dictator to Moscow coincided with an aggressive Russian campaign against the United States in Syria and Ukraine’s decision to blacklist some individuals and companies in Syria. The Middle Eastern country is strategically important to Moscow. Whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia will make efforts to maintain both political and military influence in Syria.
Russian Navy Boosts Presence in the Mediterranean
Russia Monitor is a review of the most important events related to Russian internal and external security, as well as its foreign policies. Date: Author: Grzegorz Kuczyński Russian Navy Boosts Presence in the Mediterranean A striking increase of ships...
Russian-Ukrainian Grain Deal Extended For Another 120 Days
A deal to allow vital grain exports to continue from Ukraine’s southern Black Sea ports has been extended for another four months. Despite that, the war in Ukraine has made wheat farming and export difficult. One-fifth of Ukraine’s wheat will not be sown.
Japanese PM Kishida Makes Surprise Visit to Ukraine
Japan is watching the Chinese-Russian rapprochement. Not surprisingly, it is looking for allies amongst the opponents of China, which is why the Japanese prime minister traveled to Kyiv and Warsaw. Japan is a vital and promising partner for countries in Europe’s center and east.
Russian-Chinese Fossil Fuel Partnership: Putin Humiliated After Xi’s Visit to Moscow
That was not the Putin-Xi summit, but a visit a big brother paid to the younger sibling, the one that is weakening every single month. The Kremlin failed to secure robust support from China and had to swallow further economic concessions to Beijing. Russia is turning more and more into a fuel foothold for China.
Warsaw Institute
