RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 05/2021
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Telephones and Rockets. A new ‘Normandy format’?
Russian diplomacy has successfully dragged Germany and France into talks on the situation on the Belarusian border. Migratory pressure was more and more doomed to failure with each passing day in the face of effective defence of Poland’s borders, so the Kremlin is being helped — not for the first time — by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.
USA, Germany, China and the Ukrainian Cause
Joe Biden’s presidential election victory raised high hopes among pro-state Ukrainian elites. The supposedly pro-Russian Trump was to be succeeded by an experienced politician well acquainted with the problems of Eastern Europe, having great sensitivity to human rights and human injustice.
Lukashenko Bluffing On EU Gas Threat
Floated by the Belarusian dictator, the possibility to halt gas transit into Poland and Germany amid fresh EU sanctions is part of the game Minsk and Moscow are playing against a background of the EU-Belarus border crisis. Contrary to what the Kremlin claims, it is hard to believe that Alexander Lukashenko would threaten to retaliate against any new European Union sanctions by shutting down the transit of natural gas via Belarus without the Kremlin’s knowledge. It is all the more so that a new component of Lukashenko’s aggressive policy towards the EU may fit into the Russian gas strategy.
Wang Yi Visits Four European Countries
On October 27-29, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Wang Yi, visited four European countries: Italy, Greece, Albania and Serbia . His visit to the Old Continent was preceded by a meeting with representatives of the Taliban government in Qatar.
Post-COVID-19 Economic Complications
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic left a huge mark on the world’s economies. It seems that since then, the situation has settled down. Since the second half of last year, the world has been trying to return to normalcy. It turns out, however, that in many respects, it will not be the same as before for a long time to come.
Gazprom Plays For Time, EU Has Modest Gas Stocks
It was only on November 9 that Russian energy giant Gazprom started refilling European gas-storage facilities. Nonetheless, the company so far has pumped very small amounts of gas into its European storage facilities that remain mostly empty. As Russian gas is a major part of the EU’s total storage capacity, inventories in Europe are facing a tough situation while entering the winter heating season.
Counterterrorism Strategies In Poland and France
Terrorism is now constantly present worldwide. France is seeing a continuing terrorist threat, which makes it most vulnerable to an act of terror of all European Union nations.
Maghreb. Escalating Algerian-Moroccan Tensions
On August 24, 2021, Algeria has severed diplomatic relations with Morocco, accusing it of continued hostile actions. A month earlier, the Algerian Foreign Ministry recalled its ambassador to Morocco and announced that it may take further steps in retaliation for unfavorable comments made by Morocco’s envoy to the United Nations, Omar Hilal, who dragged the Kabylia region into the decades-old dispute over Western Sahara.
Kremlin vs. Kiev’s Emancipatory Aspirations
Although Russian politicians accepted the collapse of the USSR, already in the 1990s they did not treat Ukraine as a permanent entity, but as a temporary creation devoid of history and nation, forcibly separated from Russia by the hostile imperialist forces of the “Collective West”.
Crisis on the Border Between Belarus and the EU. Russia Enters the Game
From the beginning, the Russian Federation has supported, and perhaps even inspired, Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s hybrid war against neighbouring EU and NATO countries. It has achieved its first goal, namely the escalation of migrant attacks directed by Belarusian services primarily at the border of Poland.
Putin’s Provocation In Crimea
Russia is whipping up tensions in relations with Ukraine. Perhaps it is incidental that Vladimir Putin’s visit to Crimea coincided with reports of an alleged Russian military buildup at the border with Ukraine. The fact that the Russian leader went to the annexed peninsula to observe Russia’s most important public holiday was also meaningful.
OPEC+ Meeting: Rebuffed Calls For Oil Increase Mean More Money For Russia
Eye-watering oil prices and calls from the globe’s leading economies have been of no avail. The world’s biggest oil-producing coalition and its partners, or OPEC+, will not release more oil to the market. Prices will continue to grow, which is good news for the Russian federal budget. The U.S. administration rebuffed the bloc’s decision.
The Next Step In Russia’s Incorporation Of Belarus
On Unity Day, a top Russian public holiday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko signed an agreement providing for a total of 28 integration road maps. In addition, the two leaders approved a joint military doctrine and a common migration policy.
The United States and Sweden During the Cold War: Part 3
Sweden continually feared becoming embroiled in a major conflict between superpowers that would do the country no good, but pose a major threat. Then, it was the main reason for the policy of keeping a distance between Sweden and the two political blocs.
CIA Director Visits Moscow At President Biden’s Request
CIA Director William Burns flew to Moscow for two-day talks with top Russian officials. At President Biden’s request, Burns was leading a delegation of senior American officials on the trip to Moscow. In the Russian capital, Burns held at least two meetings: with the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief and the secretary of the Security Council.
Is Russia Massing Troops At Ukraine’s Border?
It seems Russia is repeating the deceived war-like scenario it first played out earlier this year. In March and April, Moscow sounded so convincing in its threats to attack Ukraine that U.S. President Joe Biden invited Vladimir Putin for talks in Geneva to ease tensions. Now there is much to indicate that Moscow is playing a game to exert pressure on Western states. It is unlikely for any war to start under current weather conditions.
Ctrl+F: Searching for the Perpetrator
The Internet plays a significant role on the geopolitical board. The intelligence services of conflicting countries carry out cyber espionage operations and precisely targeted disinformation attacks. Hackers paid by governments gain access to the systems of their enemies, and sometimes even their allies, in order to get political advantage.
Russian Nationwide Shutdown Will Stop Pandemic, But Not For Long
In the last week of October, some Russian regions entered a lockdown. The nationwide shutdown is in force since October 30 and is expected to end on November 7 to stop a surge in coronavirus infections and deaths. But as the Russians are reluctant to get vaccinated, these measures will be short to stop the pandemic.
U.S. Bases In Central Asia? Russia Calls On Afghanistan’s Neighbors
Russia is seeking to prevent the return of U.S. and NATO troops to Central Asia. On October 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on former Soviet republics in Central Asia “not to allow a military presence of U.S. and NATO forces which plan to move there after leaving Afghan territory.” However, it is unlikely that the U.S. Army will set its foot in any of the post-Soviet republics.
Rosneft Is Developing New Strategy
Russian state oil major Rosneft is developing a new strategy centered on the transition to renewable energy resources, CEO Igor Sechin said at the 14th Eurasian Economic Forum. Sechin also said that Rosneft had invested more than $580 million in green energy in 2020 and that it had reduced the volume of pollutants it released into the atmosphere by 14 percent.
Warsaw Institute
