Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
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Russian Crackdown on Crimean Tatar Activists Continue
Crimean Tatar activists are being sentenced to long prison terms after being detained, moved to Russia, and tried by military courts in Russia. A court in Russia’s southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don has sentenced four Crimean Tatar activists to prison sentences ranging from 12 to 17 years for organizing and participating in the activities of the Islamic political organization Hizb ut-Tahrir.
The U.S. Visit of President Marcos Jr. New Resulting in the New U.S., Philippines Defense Guidelines
From 30th of April to 4th of May 2023, an official visit of the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took place in the U.S. President Marcos’ second visit was an opportunity to strengthen bilateral cooperation and a symbol of the Philippines’ ships towards the United States.
Russia Is Bracing For Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Ukraine’s effective counterattacks near Bakhmut have shrouded Russian forces in confusion. That might mean a Ukrainian counteroffensive is drawing near. Perhaps Ukrainian troops are seeking to distract Russian attention as the authorities in Moscow have no clue where or when a Ukrainian assault might happen. Despite that, the Kremlin is making continuous efforts to thwart a Ukrainian success.
Russia, Iran Continue Military And Economic Rapprochement
Seeing the United States as its common foe, Tehran and Moscow have embarked on deepening cooperation amid massive Western sanctions. Iran supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while Moscow is helping Tehran in the Middle East. This is confirmed by recent meetings between top Russian and Iranian officials.
Kyiv Is Playing Information Game As Its Counteroffensive Is Drawing Near
Ukraine’s highly anticipated spring offensive appears imminent, according to several indicators from the battlefield, as Ukrainian forces are boldly striking Russian targets including Moscow’s logistics and facilities. Ukraine has launched an assault near Bakhmut. However, Kyiv has not announced the beginning of its operation and thus Russian troops have no clue when and where to expect a new strike.
Russian Seaborne Oil Exports Hit Record High
Russian seaborne oil product exports rebounded to the highest level since the start of its war with Ukraine, before it invaded Ukraine, despite Western sanctions. The shipping data shows that Russian product exports headed to India and China surged. India makes money from processing cheap Russian oil in its refineries before reselling it to Europe. Indian oil is increasingly used to produce diesel and aviation fuel.
Ukraine Hails Offensive Success Near Bakhmut
After a months-long defensive operation, Ukraine launched an operation to retake Bakhmut–– much to a surprise to Russian forces that believed to seize the eastern Ukrainian city within days. Bakhmut had been in a Russian grip from the north and south while Ukrainian forces tried to repel the enemy in the west, with just one supply line. The recent attack again took the Russians by surprise.
SpaceX’s Failure Of an Orbital Launch Puts the Lunar Crew Landing Mission’s 2025 Deadline in Jeopardy
On April 20, Starship and the Super Heavy booster merged for the first time, aiming for an orbital test of the Starship system. Although its initial success, Starship failed to separate from the booster, thus disintegrating in a fireball not seen on the Texas sky before.
Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Agency Detains Odesa Mayor
Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov has been detained in a corruption case. Investigators accuse Trukhanov of embezzling money from the city budget. Both he and his deputy were detained at Kyiv airport. The mayor’s problems with law enforcement agencies began several years ago. Perhaps the authorities in Kyiv seek to demonstrate they are capable of tackling corruption proactively.
Victory Day (?) in Russia
Russia has seen the most scaled-back annual holiday marking the defeat of Nazi Germany in at least fifteen years. Many Victory Day events across the country were canceled or pared back because of security concerns and fears of Ukrainian strikes, and the annual military parade in Moscow was surprisingly modest. Moscow has felt bitterly disappointed with its lack of military success in Ukraine while fearing a looming Ukrainian assault.
The economic and bilateral conventions between Poland and Hungary
Polish-Hungarian two good friends, says the saying, but what fundamental economic pillars should we consider when talking about the economic relationship between the two countries? What is the significance of Polish-Hungarian relations in 2023? What developments are there in improving these relationships? The CEO of the Polish-Hungarian Chamber of Commerce answers.
Energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe
We are pleased to invite you to our conference entitled “Energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe ” co-organized with Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC).
U.S. Lawmakers Stage War-Game Conflict over Taiwan with China
A U.S. congressional war game simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was launched. Members of the House of Representatives’ Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party played the role of presidential aides to test U.S. scenarios.
The Deteriorating Economic Situation in Lebanon
A decrease in economic productivity, accompanied by political unrest and an escalation in the cost of living has pushed Lebanon’s economic crisis to unprecedented levels.
China Hails Stronger Ties with Russia
If anyone hoped Beijing could mitigate Russia’s stance on Ukraine, it now seems that it is quite the opposite as China is embracing a new stance on Russia, fearful of Moscow’s military defeat. Beijing has sought to portray itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict, although it is increasingly favorable to Moscow. So far China has helped Russia politically while offering a lifeline––Beijing has increased purchases of Russian exports––but the signs are that the Chinese government could supply Moscow with military aid, too.
Ukraine’s SBU Seeks to Rebuild its Reputation
Ukraine is deepening a purge of double agents in its spy service, a Russian spy ring that has been formed in the country for the past thirty years, the chief of Ukraine’s SBU Vasyl Malyuk told journalists. Ukraine’s SBU Security Service has exposed over 300 traitors since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. With Malyuk appointed as its new chief, the SBU has finally made a domestic crackdown on spies. But will the cleanout allow the agency to rebuild its reputation after being hit so hard recently?
The recent U.S. intelligence leak threatens the Ukrainian planned spring offensive
In March, the leak of secret U.S. documents directly linked to national security raised public interest. The leaked documents concerned U.S. intelligence towards U.S. allies, analysis related to China or top-secret information about U.S. involvement in the Ukraine affair. On April 13, Authorities identified Jack Teixeira, a Massachusetts Air National Guard member, as a person responsible for leaking classified documents over Discord. He has been arrested by the FBI in Massachusetts the same day afternoon.
Would China Mediate in Ukraine-Russia War?
After French President Emmanuel Macron returned from a trip to Beijing, sources said that he tasked a top foreign policy adviser to work with China on a “framework” for future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The increasingly supporting stance is noticeable in other Western countries that so far have offered more aid to Ukraine than Germany and France.
Russian Oil Exports Hit Record High Despite Western Sanctions
Supplies of seaborne Russian oil products totaled 3.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2023, a 31.2 percent year-on-year increase. It is over the previous record of 3.1 million bpd exported in February 2022.
Rivals Launch Their Taiwan Drills
The Philippines and the U.S. began on Tuesday their joint military exercises codenamed Balikatan 2023, just a day after China wrapped up its three-day exercise near Taiwan. The U.S.-Philippine drills will run up to April 28.
Warsaw Institute
