Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
The Federal Case Against Trump and the U.S. 2024 Presidential Election
As U.S. voters prepare for the 2024 Presidential election, a handful of jurors gather for the federal indictment of former president of the United States, Mr Donald Trump. The indictment marks the first time in history that the US Government has brought federal charges against a U.S. president.
A Prelude to Massive Ukrainian Counteroffensive?
Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive to retake territory from Russia’s occupying forces has begun, with the first ten days of offensive operations in many spots along the frontline. Ukrainian troops are seeking to explore some vulnerabilities in the Russian defense and mislead the enemy to discover where to break the frontline most successfully.
Trump Suggests that as President, He Would Settle Ukraine War Within 24 Hours
Former President Donald Trump, during the meeting on 10th of May with local republicans in New Hampshire, suggested that he would have resolved the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
Reasons and Effects of Ukraine’s Dam Collapse
Ukraine has been aware of Russian plans to destroy the Kakhovka dam that upheld Ukraine’s largest reservoir since last autumn. Back then, however, Russian troops retreated from the western section of Kherson province while the Dnieper River became a hundreds-long barrier between the Russian and Ukrainian positions.
Russia Sees Decrease In Oil and Gas Revenue
In May 2023, Moscow’s crucial oil and gas revenues were lower by 33 percent compared to last year. The reason was lower prices amid Western sanctions and fewer gas supplies to Europe. Moscow is running low on windfall profits due to a spike in hydrocarbon prices shortly after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
U.S, Papua New Guinea Sign Security Treaty
The United States and Papua New Guinea have signed a new bilateral defense cooperation agreement that gives American troops access to the island nation’s ports and airports.
Armenia Formally Recognizes Karabakh As Part of Azerbaijan After Years-Long Conflict
Ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijan have long been engulfed in a territorial dispute over the mountain enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The United States, as a Minsk Group co-chair country alongside France and Russia, jointly led Minsk Group activities to advance the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Ukraine Shocked By New Courtroom Corruption Scandals
A reportedly drunk judge fatally killed a National Guard serviceman at the checkpoint in a new scandal that involved the Ukrainian courtroom. A few days earlier, Ukrainian media reported that Kniaziev was caught receiving a few million dollars in bribe.
Russia’s Lukoil Pays Dividends, Shows Interest in Asia
Russia’s Lukoil informed that its net profit rose by 24.3 percent from last year. Shareholders approved the company’s final dividend. Meanwhile, the Russian oil company is withdrawing from Europe while seeking to invest in other markets across the globe. After Lukoil completed its oil refinery sale in Italy in early May, now the Russian oil producer is nearing to sell its assets in Romania and Moldova while showing interest in Central Asia.
The Importance of Railways for Safety and Growth of Three Seas Initiative
One area of cooperation is that in the field of rail transport that serves a major role for economy and security, which is highly noticeable now, as Ukraine is fighting Russia’s invasion. However, so are some shortages in the countries of the Three Seas Initiative, including links along the north-south axis, all of them crucial for regional cohesion.
Russian Parliament Approves Bill Allowing Passport Confiscation From Military Personnel
Russia’s State Duma adopted a bill that grants authorities the power in certain cases to confiscate Russian conscripts’ foreign passports or declare them invalid. Russian lawmakers thus seek to prevent military personnel and fresh conscripts from fleeing the country. However, the law will not take effect until the autumn call-up.
Gazprom’s Shares Fall While Rosneft Sees Bigger Profit
Russian state-run gas firm Gazprom has seen a massive drop in net profits last year amid Western sanctions and its withdrawal from some major markets. Russia’s oil companies are in a far better situation, including Rosneft that saw a record-high increase in its net profit in Q1 2023.
The U.S. Is Guardian of Religious Belief, Russia, China Violate Religious Practices
The U.S. Department of State just released its 2022 Report on International Religious Freedom, The report mentioned Russia and China as two countries that violated religious faith most. Twenty-five years ago, President Clinton signed the International Religious Freedom Act into law, declaring it a bedrock American belief. For the Joe Biden administration, democracy, including religious freedom, and human rights are core values that the United States seeks to protect across the globe.
Saudi-Russia Tensions Rise On OPEC Oil Cuts
Tensions are mounting between Saudi Arabia and Russia on OPEC oil production cuts. Riyadh has grown increasingly frustrated with the fact that recent oil cuts failed to boost prices. One of the reasons is Russia whose oil exports have grown despite declarations to curb output. Moscow also said it would oppose further cuts in production.
Finland’s Gasum Terminates Long-Term Supply Deal with Gazprom
Finnish state-owned gas wholesaler Gasum is the first European country to have terminated a contract to buy natural gas from Gazprom Export via pipelines from Russia. Other European companies, which still hold legal supply deals with Gazprom, might follow suit.
Russia, Belarus Sign Deal to Deploy Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the transfer of some tactical nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus had begun. Earlier the Kremlin informed Moscow had signed documents on placing Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, as announced a few weeks before. Handing out nuclear weapons to Belarus will not change the security situation in the region as Russia has deployed such weapons in its exclave of Kaliningrad. It is just a political game.
Russia’s Tatneft Discovers New Oil Field in Libya
Russian oil firm Tatneft and National Oil Corporation (NOC) of Libya said they had successfully drilled a well on an oil block of Libya’s Ghadames Basin, some 330 kilometers south of Tripoli. This might be a step towards restoring Russian oil production in a divided African country although oil firms are unlikely to get involved to the same extent as before the fall of Gaddafi.
U.S. Sanctions Wagner Chief In Mali
The U.S. has made efforts to curb what it says are Wagner’s destabilizing activities. Washington accused the Russian private army of trying to obscure its efforts to acquire military equipment for use in Ukraine.
Anti-Putin Russians Launch Cross-Border Attack on Belgorod
Anti-Putin militia entered the western Russian region of Belgorod not to seize Russian territory or dismantle Russian forces. The aim was to exert psychological pressure on Russia in four aspects. First, that was to show that the regime was incapable of protecting its territory while continuing an assault on Ukraine. Secondly, it was a reminder that among the Russians some oppose Putin and his regime. Third, it was designed to deflect Moscow’s attention from the front line where a Ukrainian counteroffensive is drawing near. Last but not least, the incursion sought to cover claims that the eastern city of Bakhmut was under Russian control after months of heavy battle.
Russian Crackdown on Crimean Tatar Activists Continue
Crimean Tatar activists are being sentenced to long prison terms after being detained, moved to Russia, and tried by military courts in Russia. A court in Russia’s southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don has sentenced four Crimean Tatar activists to prison sentences ranging from 12 to 17 years for organizing and participating in the activities of the Islamic political organization Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Warsaw Institute
