Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
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China Supports Russia Through Joint Drills and Top Beijing Meeting
Although Beijing has not thrown any official support to Russia in its war with Ukraine, its authorities back Moscow unofficially. One example of that is meetings between top state officials and joint navy drills.
Putin Pledges Reinforcements To Country’s Western Flank
Russian President Vladimir Putin attended an expanded meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Board. The Russian leader made some remarks on what he referred to as the “special military operation” in Ukraine, but what Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the meeting seemed more far-reaching. He publicly presented a series of proposed Russian defense policy changes to significantly increase the size of the Russian military by raising the age limit for conscripts and forming a new military unit near the border with Finland, a prospective NATO member.
Gazprom Opens New Arctic Field Despite Shrinking Export
Russian gas giant Gazprom was forced to reduce its export volumes due to the war and sanctions. Despite that, it opened a new Arctic field. A major problem is rebuilding infrastructure to redirect gas flows from the Gulf of Ob to China from Europe.
Moldova Is Becoming Independent of Russian Gas Flows
Moldova has imported natural gas from new directions, for the first time obtaining volumes pumped from elsewhere than Russian state-run gas firm Gazprom. The pro-Western government in Chisinau is seeking to diversify its energy resources and accumulate supplies against the background of Gazprom’s policy that consists in using gas as a tool of blackmail.
Russian Economy Is Now in Far Better State than Expected
The Russian economy has somewhat performed well throughout 2022 and experienced the aftermath of energy sanctions only in November. Officials and analysts have been gradually improving GDP forecasts for the full year, but suggested that the overall drop in output may be more prolonged. Gross domestic product fell 0.9 percent, according to September estimates, but now it could be 2 percent. The key story for the Russian economy in the coming months could be the launch of the EU’s oil embargo mechanism from Dec. 5 and the imposition of a price cap on Russian oil.
Gazprom, Rosneft Employees Banned from Leaving Russia
Employees of Russian state-run oil and gas companies have been banned from leaving the country, according to independent Russian media outlets. Gazprom employees have seen the strictest ban as neither they nor their families are allowed to travel abroad. It is another chapter of Russia’s wartime communism strategy that seeks to align the state economy with its war machine. Likewise, the authorities hope to prevent senior energy officials from fleeing the country.
Russia’s State Duma Passes New Shocking Bill on Sabotage
Putin’s regime has continued its crackdown on citizens by introducing tighter laws on sabotage. Russia’s State Duma, which is the lower house of the Russian parliament, has submitted a pile of bills on the country’s war with Ukraine. On the one hand, Russia is tightening penalties for sabotage while seeking to waive criminal liability for crimes committed in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine until late September on the other.
Russia, Iran Forge Security Partnership
Russia and Iran have stepped up their military and security cooperation. Moscow provides Tehran with training and anti-riot equipment in exchange for weapons and drones. Officials from both states hold working visits. After Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev had met with his Iranian counterpart, more senior Iranian and Russian military and law enforcement agencies officials have been involved in a whirlwind of meetings and talks.
TotalEnergies, Shell Quit Joint Russian Energy Projects
Dozens of Europe’s biggest companies have abandoned their operations in Russia. But regulations and deals in force slow down the procedure of quitting the country. Importantly, Western firms abandon joint projects with both state-run and private companies throughout Russia.
Why should Europe be concerned about the declining presence of the U.S. in Latin America?
Democrats outperformed expectations in the U.S. midterm elections held on November 8, 2022, against a Republican take-over of the House. Six states had multiple critical races including; Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Only Pennsylvania flipped to blue on the countdown.
Will Belarus Join Russian War in Ukraine? Possibly in a Month
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on December 13 announced a snap military inspection, the latest in a burst of exercises that have prompted concern from neighboring Ukraine. Yet this is unlikely to happen now. Such alarming reports have proliferated in recent months.
Russia Seeks to Prevent New Ukrainian Assault
A new Ukrainian ground assault is just a matter of time. The coming winter may provide Ukraine with more opportunities to retake land from Russia, with more matériel to be sent to the front. Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine from the north. But it is just a bluff, according to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine. Ukraine has more efficient air defense systems to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
Poland and the Baltics Defense and Security
We have a pleasure to invite you to our next program. This time we will discuss about defense and security in Poland and the Baltics.
Russia To Sell Petroleum Products To Pakistan Amid Saudi Fears
As the European Union introduced a ban on Russian oil, Moscow is diverting its crude from Europe to Asia. Now Russia will sell its crude to Pakistan. Moscow’s recent moves have deepened Saudi Arabia’s anxiety as the country has been the biggest oil supplier regionwide.
Turkey’s Erdogan Puts Pressure on Putin in Syria
Turkey has taken advantage of Russia’s uneasy situation amid its invasion of Ukraine, seeking to force Moscow into a pile of political and economic concessions. One example of that is Turkish efforts to block Russian oil tankers. The government in Ankara seems to prioritize its gains in Syria, notably in its clash with Syrian Kurds.
Hungary towards the Three Seas Initiative
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe regained the longed-for freedom and for the first time in centuries were able to independently decide about their future. In the 1990s, they set Euro-Atlantic integration as their overriding goal. However, one of the criteria for membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance was participation in regional cooperation formats. At that time, agreements were signed that established the Visegrad Group (V4) and the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), two cooperation platforms that laid the foundations for further mechanisms of Euro-Atlantic integration. In 2007, most Central European countries could already boast membership in the European Union and NATO.
After Bali: The Biden-Xi Talks
The rivalry between the US and China has been intensifying since 2018. And, since October 12, 2022, the White House’s reasserted National Security Strategy (NSS) has highlighted China as a direct and imminent threat.
The Battle for Bakhmut: Russia Did Not Learn a Lesson
Russia has thrown many troops and matériel into battle for a mid-sized city in the Donetsk region, an effort that resembles its strategy a couple of months ago in Severodonetsk. Ukraine has seemingly put a lot of effort into defending Bakhmut to involve as many Russian troops as possible. Losing a strategically insignificant city could be worth further advances, also in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Prospects for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the 21st century
We invite you to the next conference entitled “Prospects for Polish-Hungarian cooperation in the 21st century”.
Potential worsening of U.S. – North Korea relations following Pyongyang’s successful test missile launch
In a recent stunt, North Korea launched an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) landing near Japanese waters. South Korean officials suspect the missile to be a Hwasong-17, Pyongyang’s most powerful ICBM.
Warsaw Institute
