Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Marking One Year of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
As Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave orders for a military assault on February 24, 2022, Russian troops mounted attacks in multiple cities throughout Ukraine. The idea was to seize Kyiv and install a Moscow-loyal puppet government in Ukraine. A Russian blitzkrieg operation actually succeeded in the south where Russian forces advanced from Crimea to capture territory equal to the area of Switzerland. No sooner than in March did they have to withdraw from northern Ukraine while Ukrainian forces made gradual efforts to recapture more swathes of territory. That has been possible through Western military aid to Ukraine.
Novatek Plans To Launch Arctic LNG 2 This Year
Russia’s largest private gas firm aims at expanding its flagship project Arctic LNG 2, which is on schedule to begin operating by the end of 2023. War and international sanctions notwithstanding, the Russian natural gas company forges ahead with the development of its grand Arctic projects.
Russia Moves Troops From Far North To Ukraine
The Norwegian and Estonian intelligence agencies recently presented their open threat and risk assessments in 2023. Both emphasized that Russia poses the greatest threat to European security. Interestingly, Russia has relocated large ground forces from the High North to Ukraine, according to both reports.
Russia’s Hydrocarbon Exports in 2022: Moscow Bets On Bigger LNG Output
Last year saw somewhat bittersweet results in Russia’s hydrocarbon exports and related figures. Although the country sold more oil, the situation will now deteriorate. Russia saw more modest gas sales figures, but the liquefied natural gas sector stands out.
War In Ukraine Dominates Munich Security Conference
The Russian invasion of Ukraine topped the agenda of the Munich Security Conference this year. The summit gathered top leaders including Polish President Andrzej Duda, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the conference via a video link.
Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address
U.S. President Joe Biden’s state of the union address mostly concentrated on domestic issues, with geopolitical turmoil being somewhat of secondary importance. When tackling foreign affairs, Biden focused mostly on Ukraine and U.S-China rivalry.
Israel Makes Slight Shift In Ukraine Policy
Ukraine Monitor presents the latest news concerning internal and external matters of Ukraine – a unique country where the interests of the East and the West clash almost every day. Date: Author: Grzegorz Kuczyński Israel Makes Slight Shift In Ukraine...
Austria, Netherlands Increase Hydrocarbons Imports From Russia
While the EU ban on Russian fuel is biting Moscow, Russia has been delivering some crude to EU countries. Among those that bought oil from Russia were Austria and the Netherlands.
Russia Boosts Presence in Mali
The Malian junta appointed several pro-Russian figures to high-ranking military positions, indicating growing Russian influence over the Malian government. In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov traveled to Bamako, the Malian capital, where he was awarded one of the highest Malian orders. All this points to the growing influence of Moscow in the African country.
Staff Reshuffles in Russia’s Security Council
It was long ago when Russia’s Security Council saw major staff changes. They may undermine the reputation of Nikolay Patrushev, its chairman. Recent appointees include people from outside the inner circle of the former FSB chief. In addition, a new person linked to Vladimir Putin took a job at the Council. Perhaps the institution saw some personnel changes ahead of the forthcoming Federal Assembly address. Or possibly Putin is seeking to chasten some hawkish officials within the Council.
Russian Forces Destroyed Near Ukraine’s Vuhledar
Russia made a failed attempt to encircle and capture the strategically located town of Vuhledar in the south of Donetsk province. Russian forces have sustained their biggest defeat so far near the eastern Ukrainian town, according to sources in Russia.
Russia Cuts Oil Output As Sanctions Bite
Russia will cut crude oil production by half a million barrels per day starting in March. That means the country’s major challenge is to export crude oil. Reduced export volumes for crude means that Russia is unable to sell as much of its oil – even at a discounted price – as before the price cap and the EU embargo came into effect.
Russia Celebrates Invasion with Rally and Federal Assembly Address
The Russian propaganda machine is exploiting one year exactly since Russia recognized two breakaway republics in Donbas and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to unify Russian people around the leader. There will be an effort to mobilize people in Russia with Putin’s Federal Assembly speech and a concert in the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow. Chances are that Russian forces will advance some gains in Ukraine such as the seizing of Bakhmut, which could be further exploited in Putin’s speeches.
Ukraine’s Reznikov Not to Be Dismissed Despite Rumors
Another head would allegedly roll in Ukraine’s government purge amid recent corruption scandals. Rumors of a possible Reznikov resignation appeared on February 5. For the defense minister, there was reputational damage in relation to the inflated catering contracts.
Zelensky Announces Personnel Changes Within Law Enforcement Agencies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a new series of personnel reshuffles. The Ukrainian leader learned a lesson from earlier mishaps while seeking to tackle corruption – as fighting corruption is one condition set by Ukraine’s Western allies. In addition, Ukrainian media outlets seemingly ended a grace period for authorities after the country had been invaded by Russia.
Ukraine’s Approach to Russian-Linked Orthodox Church
The authorities in war-torn Ukraine must be wary of an array of internal threats, including institutions affiliated with Russia, and not Ukraine, that carry out their instructions from Moscow.
The Ally We Trust. Warsaw’s Perspective On Washington And Berlin
February 24, 2022, remain a historic milestone that may mark a new chapter in the perception of international reality. This day certainly marks a particular significance for the Central and Eastern European region. From Poland’s perspective, the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was another test of allies we could trust and could not. The widespread social and political mobilization and attitude of our key partners solve the debate about security direction for Warsaw in the upcoming years.
Lavrov Visits Sudan to Conclude Red Sea Naval Base Agreement
Following the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Sudan last week, Moscow and Khartoum have finalized the terms of an agreement on establishing a logistical center for the Russian Navy in Sudan, concluded a few years ago. The deal was somewhat derailed due to an unstable situation in Sudan. Sudan has been without a parliament after a popular uprising led to the military overthrow of longtime autocrat Omar al Bashir. Russian officials get on well with the Sudanese military junta while some top Sudanese generals have benefitted from collaboration with the shadowy military contractor Wagner Group.
Russia Races Against Clock Before Much-Awaited Offensive
In January, Western officials and military analysts believed a new Russian ground offensive to begin in March if not later. A renewed Russian offensive in the east of Ukraine is underway in February. Why did Russia’s much-awaited offensive begin now and where a renewed push could be observed? Does it hint at any breakthrough in Moscow’s war with Ukraine?
Greater Regional Investment and Security Cooperation: Latvian Priorities for the Three Seas Initiative
In June of this year [2022 – ed. note], Three Seas Initiative members and partners met in Riga, Latvia to discuss priorities, investment, and projects of critical importance for the ongoing development of greater regional interconnectedness between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Seas.
Warsaw Institute
