Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23
Content
As OPEC+ Strategy Thrives, Russia Has Money to Wage War
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has gained about 30 percent in late Q3 this year. The biggest beneficiary is Russia while Saudi Arabia––by drastically curbing its crude output––has also played its part. The cartel is likely to impose further curbs as the strategy of reducing output and releasing less crude to the market has proved successful. The question is how long Riyadh will continue such a policy that might result in a gradual loss of Asian markets in favor of cheaper Russian oil.
Ukraine Advances Towards Tokmak, Russia Fails Counterattacks Near Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces carried out offensive operations towards Melitopol and repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut in the second half of September. For weeks, in the northernmost sector of the frontline, Russia has ramped up its attacks on Kupyansk, trying to win back a city, although without any success. With the approach of fall and winter expected to make fighting more complicated, Ukrainian forces seek to score some bigger success and capture the settlement of Tokmak, considered a strategic city on the approach towards Zaporizhzhia.
Russia’s Problem with Wagner Group in Africa
It is a tough task to replace the Wagner Group in Africa where it has sent numerous mercenary deployments. Some local military juntas trust Wagner mercenaries and refuse their withdrawal as they are struggling to consolidate a grip on power. Moscow has sought to persuade multiple African countries, including Libya, Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, though with no result. A game-changer could be Wagner’s withdrawal from Syria where a major communications point between Russia and Africa has been lost.
Ukraine Advances Around Bakhmut, Continues Heavy Fighting In Zaporizhzhia Region
In early September, Ukrainian forces decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line in Zaporizhzhia region. The fighting also continues in the direction of Bakhmut where Ukrainian troops––slowly albeit steadily––seize areas south of the city.
Disinformation as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare at the Polish-Belarusian Border
The Belarusian or Eastern migration and border crisis is one of the biggest hybrid conflicts Central Europe has faced in the 21st century. Although the conflict has faded in the lights of the war in Ukraine since 2022, it remains a live crisis, with its unique challenges, and poses a constant security threat to the states involved and to the European Union as a whole.
Policy Brief Within Kremlin Watchers Project – 09/2023
In recent months, the Czech Republic has witnessed a surge in disinformation campaigns, posing significant challenges to its democratic fabric and information ecosystem.
Russia Again Hits Ukrainian Energy Facilities
As winter is coming, Russia once again targets Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure to wreak havoc across the country. The government in Kyiv says its air defense has become even more complex and experienced to repel further attacks.
Wagner Fighters Return to Ukraine, Perhaps As Part of Russia’s National Guard
Thousands of former Wagner Group fighters are a valuable asset that the Kremlin, involved in a bloody war in Ukraine, will never give up. The process of recruiting former members of the Wagner Group for MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs) or the regular army seems to make little progress. Hence, the Kremlin has decided to stage discussions regarding the potential inclusion of Wagner units within the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia).
Economic cooperation between the US and Mexico – will Mexico replace China?
In the latest step, China has successfully extended its curbs on iPhones to local government workers and state-owned companies following central government employees. Bejign’s move weighed heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, with Apple shares falling.
China Extends iPhone Ban for Local Administration Employees
In the latest step, China has successfully extended its curbs on iPhones to local government workers and state-owned companies following central government employees. Bejign’s move weighed heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, with Apple shares falling.
Azerbaijan-Georgia Partnership as a Key for EU’s Long-term Energy Security
Azerbaijan and Georgia are two neighboring countries of the South Caucasus and strategic allies. The Caspian Sea region is rich in oil and natural gas resources, and Azerbaijan’s major export routes are connected to Western energy markets via Georgia and Turkiye. Moreover, these countries support connectivity in the region, which is an important link between Central Asia, the Caspian region and Europe. To this end, both Azerbaijan and Georgia have also strategic partnerships with Ankara.
How to Address the EU Migration Crisis?
In 2021, around 2.3 million undocumented migrants from Asia and Africa landed in Europe. It was the first serious renewal of migration crisis since 2015. In 2022 and 2023, even more migrants arrived. Consequently, EU institutions and nations took action to break the stalemate over unregulated migrant flows and the bloc’s migration policy as such.
Russian Disinformation about Ukrainian Refugees in Poland
Disinformation is a tool commonly used by Russia to achieve the strategic goals of foreign policy. Russian disinformation campaigns seek to reach many states, including Poland. Russian propaganda outlets spread a flurry of fake news concerning many topics, notably Ukrainian refugees who settled in Poland shortly after Moscow invaded Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden Visits Vietnam
U.S. President Joe Biden expressed desire to elevate Vietnam to a strategic partner and strengthen tech ties between the two states. The president will arrive in Hanoi on September 10 to meet with General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong on the one-day visit to the Vietnamese capital after attending the annual Group of 20 leaders’ summit in India.
A Wavering Political Landscape in Spain
With Spain holding the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until December 2023, the next coalition government may set the tone for decisive topics from climate policy to migration at the European level.
Future Scenarios of Sino-Russian Military Cooperation
The post-Soviet monolithic international system, over which the United States unchallengedly has presided, is undergoing tectonic shifts engendered by the interplay of the American retreating influence from parts of the world and by the subsequent rise of aspiring global hegemons, regional powers or emboldened revisionists that seek to fill the vacuum left by the US in these parts of the world.
Chinese Footprint in Europe
The People‘s Republic of China (PRC) is now a threat to the political and economic integrity of the European Union (EU) alongside the bloc‘s security and independence.
U.S. – India Relations & India’s Emerging Influence in the World
We are pleased to invite you to our latest online debate entitled “U.S. – India Relations & India’s Emerging Influence in the World”. Let’s discuss about India!
Policy Brief Within Kremlin Watchers Project
Russia continues to fight for the hearts and minds of Westerners. At the very least, it is trying to create information chaos that undermines social cohesion and influences public opinion on Russian geopolitics.
Ukraine About To Make Vital Breakthrough In Zaporizhzhia
Three months into their long-awaited counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces are gaining a foothold in the area where they have breached Russia’s first main defensive line in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine could liberate the strategic settlement of Tokmak and thus cut communications and supply lines between Russia and the Russian-occupied territory of Crimea and the eastern Kherson region.
Warsaw Institute
