Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
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Russian Disinformation against Poland and Ukraine
Russia has been utilizing disinformation as a tool in its foreign policy for years, with Poland and Ukraine being particularly vulnerable to its effects. The goal of these efforts is to undermine the reputation and international standing of these countries, as well as to weaken their relationships with other nations.
Robust Alliances: USA-Israel, Russia-Iran
Juniper Oak 23 exercise involves Israeli and U.S. troops in a message to the world that Washington has been committed to the Middle East despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and an implied warning to China, Russia, and Iran. Moscow and Tehran have seen a major rapprochement lately.
WI Daily News – Polish companies want to maintain employment levels
Daily dose of the most important news regarding Polish international cooperation, affairs & activity abroad.
The Escalating Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Violence has risen in the Israel-Palestine conflict in the past few days. Nine Palestinians have been killed during an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank.
Will France Be Replaced by Russia in Another African Country?
The new military junta in Burkina Faso is making effort to team up with Russia, a sign that Russia is becoming a major player in Africa after the Central African Republic and Mali. Possibly, Wagner Group, a shadowy paramilitary group, will serve a key role in Burkina Faso – as it already has in the two African states.
Poland Ready to Deploy More Tanks to Ukraine
Poland will send an additional 60 tanks to Ukraine on top of the 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks it has already pledged, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was quoted as saying. Poland is ready to send other tanks that are Polish-made battle tanks developed from the Soviet-era T-72 range. Western battle tanks could be a game changer, but only if there is proper six-week training and if they arrive soon.
USA Strongly Supports Ukraine
The United States has pledged its unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, offering military and economic aid since the country was invaded by Russia. Washington will provide Ukraine with a batch of advanced surface-to-air Patriot missile batteries and has already trained many Ukrainian troops. Recently, top U.S. and Ukrainian have met in Poland for talks.
Rosneft, Novatek Gains, Gazprom Loses
The figures for the Russian gas sector in 2022, in particular an increase in liquefied natural gas output, show that Gazprom is weakening while two other companies – Novatek and Rosneft – are rising in power. Rosneft has boosted output while Novatek is now producing more liquefied natural gas. In an attempt to wean the country from its dependence on the European gas market, Russia has increased gas exports to China, where its three biggest energy companies compete.
Ukraine Sweeps Out Officials Amid Corruption Scandal
A slew of high-level officials resigned or were dismissed from their posts amid a number of allegations of government corruption in Ukraine’s biggest internal shake-up since it was invaded by Russia last year. The shake-up came as Ukraine is lobbying hard for Western countries to provide the military equipment, necessary to fight the Russians.
Iranian, Russian Speakers Meet, Calling for Strategic Cooperation
Russian State Duma speaker headed to Tehran, a more powerful sign of cooperation between Russia and Iran than just a parliamentary cooperation commission. Volodin is a hawk with strong ties to Vladimir Putin. Perhaps he traveled to Iran to consolidate his position in the “party of war” and open a new chapter in Russian-Iranian ties.
Russian Crackdown on Crimean Tatars
Russia is stepping up a campaign of repression against Crimean Tatars, undoubtedly fearing Ukraine’s effort to reclaim the peninsula forcibly annexed back in 2014. A small ethnic group has spoken out against Moscow’s takeover of the peninsula. In addition, Turkey is an official guarantor of their rights. Russian crackdown on Crimean Tatars could sour ties between Russia and Turkey.
Russia Remains Idle In Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis
Since December, Azerbaijan has blocked only land connection between Armenia and the ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan. No transport link by air has been established for three decades. Russian “peacekeeping” do nothing about Azerbaijani militants sent by the government in Baku to prevent traffic on the only road linking the province to Armenia. As Moscow remains idle, Armenia no longer believes in Moscow’s allied commitments while Western states are eager to take advantage of that.
Ukrainian Government Official Arrested on Suspicion of Bribery
The Cabinet of Ministers on January 22 dismissed Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Communities Development Vasyl Lozynskiy, who has been detained and accused of receiving a bribe. He was arrested on allegations of corruption in a bid to purchase generators that are now in high demand in Ukraine.
Russia Expels Estonian Ambassador
The Estonian ambassador in Russia has been ordered to leave the country, the Estonian foreign ministry said in a statement. Many ambassadors will now be replaced with a chargé d’affaires – a diplomat of a lower rank acting in place of an ambassador. That is a new chapter in souring ties between the Baltic states and Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Situation at Front Line in Ukraine Reaches Deadlock
For two months, the frontline between occupying Russian troops and Ukrainian soldiers has not advanced much. Indeed, the city of Soledar fell to the Russians, but it is not going to have a strategic impact on the war itself, albeit being part of the effort to capture Bakhmut. The situation on the frontline in Ukraine is generally in a state of stalemate. No major advancements in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia while in Luhansk, fierce fighting is taking place along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Chances are that the situation will remain in a deadlock until a new major offensive is launched by either side, perhaps this spring.
South Africa, Russia’s Biggest African Ally
Due to its location and its role in African politics, let aside from its membership in the BRICS group, South Africa is a valuable partner for Moscow. The country’s ruling party, the African National Congress, is following a policy that favors Russia, which matters now as Russia continues to shell Ukraine.
U.S. Migrant Crisis
In early January 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden visited the border town of El Paso in southern Texas, one of the most vivid symbols of the decades-long breakdown in America’s immigration system.
Russian Oil Is Getting Mixed in Singapore
Facing sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is looking further afield to find customers for its crude oil. Russian oil being is blended in Singapore and then re-exported globally as traders reap huge profits, according to Bloomberg.
Trafigura Sells Stake In Indian Refinery
Trafigura has sold its stake in an Indian oil refinery joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft. Earlier, Trafigura had sold its stake in Russia’s giant Vostok Oil project. Meanwhile, it continues to take European assets of Russian oil companies.
Russian Airstrikes Did Not Dampen Ukrainian Spirit
Russia has openly acknowledged targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with waves of missile and drone strikes since the start of last October. Moscow’s strategy seeks no military breakthrough, instead hoping to inflict damage and pain to Ukraine’s economy and civilians amid harsh winter.
Warsaw Institute
