Russia Monitor Monthly 1/23
Content
War In Donbas: Battles Of Kupyansk And Bakhmut
No breakthrough was made in the second half of August in the Kharkiv-Donbas sector of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is putting continuous pressure on the Luhansk-Kharkiv border while Ukraine is trying to seize the hills around Bakhmut, flank the city seen as a symbol of defiance, and push Russian forces out of it.
Ukraine Cracks Down On Corrupt Military Enlistment Officers
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has begun efforts to root out corruption in the defense ministry. He sacked senior regional officials in charge of military conscription in an anti-corruption drive amid Western pressure and the limited number of people willing and able to fight.
Russia Seizes Control of Wagner’s Mercenary Empire After Prigozhin’s Death
The plane crash that allegedly killed Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on August 23 was caused by an explosion, closing the case of the short-lived mutiny in June. Before Prigozhin was killed in the crash, Russian officials made a draft order to seize Wagner Group’s assets and other businesses linked to Prigozhin in several African countries.
Surovikin Removed from Military Leadership, But Still Useful for Russian Regime
Russia’s General Sergei Surovikin, an arch critic of General Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, has been removed from his leadership role in Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Kremlin officials sought to keep Surovikin to prevent the defense minister and the chief of general staff from declaring victory after Prigozhin’s death.
Ukrainian Drones Strike At Russian Strategic Bombers
An assault was launched in an airfield in Novgorod Oblast, damaging a Tu-22M3 aircraft. Two days later, Russian bombers were damaged in Russia’s Kaluga Oblast at the Shaykovka airfield as a result of a drone attack. Russian officials said there was no damage after an attempted drone attack in the district where Shaykovka is located. Earlier, another aircraft was burned despite initial reports of damage.
Facing Possible Pressure from Hawks, Putin Meets with Top Generals at Military HQ
President Vladimir Putin visited the commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine and other top military brass, including Valery Gerasimov, in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. The visit was announced on August 19 in a statement on the Kremlin website.
Why should we be concerned about Russia’s ideological imperialism in Africa
Russia’s ideological imperialism knows no boundaries. Leaders of several African countries met with Russian leader Vladimir Putin during the Russia-Africa Summit hosted in St. Petersburg on the 27th and 28th of July 2023.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive Advancing Slowly in South and Bakhmut Direction
Two months into the long-awaited counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have not made any substantial gains on the frontline. The Russians had to withdraw on several sections along the frontline. Ukrainian forces have retaken the biggest swathes of territory around Bakhmut and along the border of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and southern Zaporizhzhya regions. Ukraine’s strategy still involves far-reaching wariness of personnel and equipment losses and efforts to impair Russian military, materiel, and supply lines behind the frontline.
Russian Forces Intensify Shelling of Kupyansk
Heavy fighting has emerged in the easternmost section of the Russian-Ukrainian frontline. Russian troops are trying to break through Ukraine’s defenses in the Kupyansk direction and capture the city. In addition, Ukrainian forces are getting pummeled by dozens of air strikes and artillery barrages from Russian territory. A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, a sign that the Ukrainian military command might seek to withdraw from a strip of land and form a defense line along the river.
How to contain an increasingly assertive China?
Tensions in the South China Sea are on the rise. The United States has just pledged to defend Philippine vessels if they are attacked over there, after Beijing and Manila blamed each other after a China Coast Guard ship fired water cannons at a Philippine boat. The incident may well be deliberately provoked by China to test the commitment of the United States in the region.
As Russian Oil Gets Cheaper, India Continues Buying Spree
Never before has India bought so cheap crude oil. More crude supplies from Russia drive oil and fuel consumption in India, which is now the world’s third-largest oil importer.
NATO and the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific is arguably the new center of geopolitical and economic power not only for the United States and Canada but also for other member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Disinformation and Democracy: Navigating the 2023 Political Landscape in Central and Eastern Europe
The year 2023 is marked as a political year in history. The agenda for 2023 features various countries including Poland and Slovakia gearing up for crucial elections, poised to respond to both domestic and external pressures. After the round of elections in China, Spain, and Turkey, citizens’ willingness to preserve the status quo has found ground in society.
China Welcomed Henry Kissinger as an “Old Friend”
During a recent surprise visit to China, 100 years old Henry Kissinger was welcomed as an “old friend” by Beijing’s highest dignitaries.
The European consensus on climate policy is unraveling
The departure of EU “climate” Commissioner Frans Timmermans, who is hoping to do well in the upcoming Dutch election, may well be a pivotal moment. More than anyone else, Timmermans is the face of the European Union’s drive for ever more intrusive regulations to combat climate change.
In brief: Taiwan Elections 2024: Key Factors and Points to Watch
As Taiwan gears up for its crucial 2024 elections in January, political dynamics with China and the U.S. are expected to intensify, drawing the attention of both domestic and international observers.
Kremlin Watchers Report: Trends in the Czech Disinformation Scene
The Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory marked 500 days in early July. During this time, a number of disinformation narratives flowing from Russia have been circulating in the Czech internet environment, aiming to turn public opinion against Ukraine and undermine trust in the government. Below is an overview of the current disinformation tendencies spreading through the Czech internet in June and July 2023.
Russian Bear of Influence in Slovakia
The penetration of pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives into the Slovak information space has been occurring since 2014, when the emphasis on deceptive narratives about the alleged oppression of the Russian minority in Ukraine, the Western political and societal decadency, or the allegedly strong background of the far right in Ukrainian society and politics, intensified.
Disarming Disinformation in Central and Eastern Europe
Disinformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains an enduring and concerning phenomenon, sparking discussions within academia and the political arena.
The U.S. Has Agreed to Provide Ukraine with Cluster Munitions
On June 18-19th U.S. Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, travelled to the People’s Republic of China for meetings with President Xi Jinping, Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
Warsaw Institute
