Russia Monitor Monthly 2/23
Content
Security a Priority During Talks Between Wang Yi and the Taliban in Doha
The withdrawal of US military forces from Afghanistan has been widely commented around the world, and has also raised speculation about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) deeper involvement in the region. Beijing maintains relations with the new Afghan government, but this should not be perceived as a sign of a major change in China’s approach towards the country. Ensuring stability in the region remains a priority.
Moldova Says Gas Crisis Over After Deal With Russia
The Moldovan government and Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom said on October 29 they have agreed to extend a contract for Russian natural gas supplies for a period of five years. It is said off-the-record that the price formula suits more the Moldovan side. It is little surprising that Moscow eventually reduced its expectations as Gazprom cannot afford to halt supplies to Moldova as Russian-sourced gas powers some utility plants in the Moscow-loyal breakaway region of Transnistria.
Rosneft, Vitol Deepen Their Cooperation
Trading firm Vitol closed a deal to buy large supplies of crude oil from Russia’s biggest oil firm Rosneft. The Russian giant signed a preliminary agreement to sell a 5 percent stake in Vostok Oil to a consortium that includes Vitol and planned to finalize the deal this fall.
Ukraine Uses Bayraktar TB2 For First Time In Donbas
The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 combat drone has been deployed at Donbas by the Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation for the first time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a statement. The drone targeted the positions of pro-Russian insurgents on October 26. The incident has been met with criticism from Moscow.
Josep Borrell’s Speech, Challenging Issues of Lithuania and Taiwan
The relations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with both the European Union (EU) and Taiwan have become complicated recently. These difficult events were summarized in a speech delivered at the Plenary of the European Parliament by Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice President of the European Commission, on behalf of Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Lukashenko Threatens With Polish Tanks On Pretext Of Inviting Russian Troops
The Belarusian dictator claimed that Poland had moved tanks to the border as part of its response to thousands of illegal crossings in what he named as an excuse to “bring troops closer to the Belarusian borders.” This is ridiculous but a handy cover-up for Lukashenko to invite more Russian soldiers to Belarus.
China, Russia Hold Joint Naval Maneuvers
China-Russia military drills Naval Interaction-2021 began on Thursday, October 14, near Russia’s Peter the Great Gulf in the Sea of Japan. This is another rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow, which might lead to an alliance. Moreover, it highlights the need to respond to aggressive actions of the West, as China and Russia perceive them.
Russian And Chinese Vessels Pass Through Japanese Straits
The Russia-China strategic cooperation is intensifying as evidenced by their joint drills in the Sea of Japan and their patrols including 109 vessels transiting twice between the islands of Japan.
Russian Gas Blackmail: A “Moldova Lesson” For Europe
Russian energy giant Gazprom is trying to force Moldova into signing a new contract to purchase gas at eye-watering prices. Russia is taking advantage of a gas monopoly by exerting pressure on Moldova and restricting its gas flows to the country. The government in Chisinau is hoping that the EU and Ukraine helps the country while the Moldova gas crisis shows the danger of becoming fully reliant on Russian energy commodities.
NATO–Russia: Political, Not Security, Crisis
Russia cut almost all remaining ties with the North Atlantic Alliance for the expulsion of Russian diplomats, who were allegedly working as intelligence officers. Moscow is now fueling its rhetoric targeting the Western military alliance. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has described relations with Russia as hitting a new low since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s policy confirms that Moscow sees the alliance as the biggest obstacle to its belligerent deeds. Hitting the military bloc fits into the Kremlin’s long-lasting strategy consisting of crippling or breaking up the transatlantic bloc.
Israeli Prime Minister Arrives In Russia For First Talks With Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted new Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Sochi for talks in which these two focused on what their countries had in common. It was an important meeting for the Israeli official. Bennett is seeking to keep cordial ties Putin and Netanyahu had maintained for many years. A bridge between the former prime minister and his successor is Minister Zeev Elkin, an Israeli specialist in Russia affairs.
Kosovo Expels Two Russian Diplomats Amid Conflict With Serbia
State authorities in Kosovo said the two diplomats at Russia’s liaison office to Kosovo were ordered to leave the country. As the office is closely linked to the Russian embassy in Belgrade, the expulsion could have been due to renewed tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. Russia and Serbia are allies; furthermore, Moscow does not recognize Kosovo as an independent state while Russian intelligence outlets have been involved in many joint operations with Serbian operatives in this Balkan country.
The United States and Sweden during the Cold War: Part 2
In the Cold War period, Sweden had de facto three foreign policy choices. First, to yet again attempt to cooperate with the other Scandinavian states more closely. Second, to join NATO, which would be a rather sudden move. Third, to continue the policy of non-alignment, the effectiveness of which was contingent upon the decisions of the two dominant superpowers.
Turkey Detains Russian Hitmen: Are They Kadyrov’s People?
Turkish authorities have arrested six men on charges of alleged plans to attack Chechen opposition activists residing in Turkey. Four of the purported hitmen are Russian citizens. All signs are that the operation was staged to take revenge on critics of Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya.
Moscow Is Going Back Into Lockdown As Covid-19 Cases and Deaths Soar
The epidemiological situation in Russia is worsening every single day. New restrictions come far too late while the country is likely to see a renewed surge in cases and deaths. Russian health minister says the virus has already overwhelmed the country’s hospitals. Those to be blamed are state authorities who have neglected the pandemic for months now while failing to encourage people to vaccinate.
Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen
For more than a decade, the Republic of Yemen has been torn apart by multiple armed conflicts involving both domestic militant groups and foreign states. The clashes have weakened Yemen’s central government and divided the country into various local power centers.
Polish Support for Taiwan – Podcast
In early September 2021, Polish authorities donated 400,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Taiwan, which was enthusiastically welcomed by Taipei. However, this does not translate to a deterioration of relations between Warsaw and Beijing and a sudden strong support for Taiwan in its efforts to be recognized as an independent state.
REPORT NIEPODLEGŁA
In the period April – September, the Warsaw Institute had the honor to perform the public task “The Young Sovran – 100th anniversary of Poland’s independence.” The project was co-financed by the Multiannual Program “Niepodległa” (“Sovereign”) for 2017-2022.
As part of the task, the Warsaw Institute conducted four expert meetings, which took the form of discussions, debates, and lectures. The following events were organized.
U.S.-Poland Nuclear Cooperation
Shortly before the U.S. presidential election in November 2020, back when Donald Trump was in power, Poland and the United States signed a strategic agreement to cooperate on the development of the former country’s civil nuclear power program.
Yang-Sullivan Meeting
Yang Jiechi, a Member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Office, met with Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, in Zurich, Switzerland on October 6. The summit was widely regarded as successful. Chinese experts note that bilateral relations are improving, but are also aware of the long-standing rivalry between the two countries.
Warsaw Institute
