Russia Monitor Monthly 4/23
Content
Putin Convenes Meeting after Mob Storms Dagestan Airport in Search of Jewish Passengers
An anti-Israeli mob stormed Makhachkala International Airport in the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan on October 29 searching for Jews and Israelis rumored to have arrived on a flight from Tel Aviv. Law enforcement agents arrived at the scene while Russian President Vladimir Putin convened a meeting to discuss the mob invasion at the airport. Antisemitic riots occurred elsewhere in Russia.
Russia and China in Africa
Russia’s mercenary system fights against China’s modern imperialism and of course there are the rest of the world is also playing role in Africa. A lot of countries make their business activity in Africa and try to get political and diplomatic influence in this area1. Make contracts, buy mines, bring military, and establish military bases. But what is the importance of Africa? And how do these two major powers seek to influence in Africa?
Russian Disinformation War Against Poland After the Invasion of Ukraine
Following the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the hybrid war waged by the Kremlin has gained in strength due to the solidarity opposition of both Central and Eastern European countries and the European Union. Poland, as a geographically close member of the North Atlantic Alliance and a strong ally of the Ukrainian side, has become the target of increased Russian disinformation attacks.
Paralysis in the House of Representatives and the aid to Ukraine
On October 3, 2023, U.S. House of Representatives voted to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his position as leader of the chamber. The tally was 216 to 210 with eight Republicans siding with Democrats to remove him from the speakership. This marked the first time in history that the House removed its leader while the ouster paralyzed the legislative branch of the government. The absence of a speaker appeared no closer to a consensus for bipartisan cooperation in Congress.
Russian Disinformation on Grain Crisis in Europe
Representatives of Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary have met on Tuesday, September 5th in Brussels to discuss the matter of expiring, with September 15th, ban on Ukrainian grain import. Members of European Union still cannot reach a consensus regarding the grain issue, that is going to satisfy not only everyone in Europe, but also in Ukraine and the developing parts of the world.
The U.S. Immigration Crisis Dominates a Domestic Political Debate
In recent months, rapidly growing numbers of migrant has become one of the major topics of the U.S. domestic public debate. The problem is particularly acute in so-called sanctuary cities, among which New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles stand out. The upcoming national election in 2024 and the rise of public concern indicate the slow shift in the democratic approach towards immigrants.
U.S. Use G20 Summit in New Delhi to Strengthen Partnership with Emerging Markets Without China
The G20 summit in Indi marked the early beginning of September. The U.S. President Joe Biden, along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman, and Japan’s Fumio Kishida, gathered in New Delhi for the culmination point of the G20 summit. The summit distincted the Chinese leader -Xi Jinping’s- absence.
Georgia’s Pro-Russian Authorities Accuse Ukraine of Plotting a Coup
Georgia has sided with Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. State authorities obstructed Georgian volunteers in Ukraine and criticized Ukrainian support for the imprisoned former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili. In addition, Georgia boosted trade ties with Russia while opening borders to Russian citizens. State authorities also seek to begin impeachment proceedings against the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili. A story of an alleged coup masterminded by Ukrainian sources to overthrow the Georgian government is also in line with this narrative.
As Zelensky Meets Sudan’s Burhan, Is Ukraine Present in Sudan?
Is the enemy of my enemy one’s friend? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has held an unscheduled meeting with a senior official from Sudan during a technical stopover in Ireland. The two officials discussed the export of grain and perhaps also security cooperation. Recently reports have alleged that Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Russian-backed militia in Sudan. Ukraine is allegedly providing support for Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese military junta.
Russia, Moldova Involved in Standoff over Gas Supplies
Moldova’s energy minister says the government will propose that Moldovagaz, a subsidiary of Gazprom, pay the Russian gas giant $8.6 million to settle a debt that Gazprom says is more than $700 million. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that the audit had disproved Gazprom’s claim that the Moldovan government owes it hundreds of millions of dollars.
As OPEC+ Strategy Thrives, Russia Has Money to Wage War
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has gained about 30 percent in late Q3 this year. The biggest beneficiary is Russia while Saudi Arabia––by drastically curbing its crude output––has also played its part. The cartel is likely to impose further curbs as the strategy of reducing output and releasing less crude to the market has proved successful. The question is how long Riyadh will continue such a policy that might result in a gradual loss of Asian markets in favor of cheaper Russian oil.
Ukraine Advances Towards Tokmak, Russia Fails Counterattacks Near Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces carried out offensive operations towards Melitopol and repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut in the second half of September. For weeks, in the northernmost sector of the frontline, Russia has ramped up its attacks on Kupyansk, trying to win back a city, although without any success. With the approach of fall and winter expected to make fighting more complicated, Ukrainian forces seek to score some bigger success and capture the settlement of Tokmak, considered a strategic city on the approach towards Zaporizhzhia.
Russia’s Problem with Wagner Group in Africa
It is a tough task to replace the Wagner Group in Africa where it has sent numerous mercenary deployments. Some local military juntas trust Wagner mercenaries and refuse their withdrawal as they are struggling to consolidate a grip on power. Moscow has sought to persuade multiple African countries, including Libya, Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, though with no result. A game-changer could be Wagner’s withdrawal from Syria where a major communications point between Russia and Africa has been lost.
Ukraine Advances Around Bakhmut, Continues Heavy Fighting In Zaporizhzhia Region
In early September, Ukrainian forces decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line in Zaporizhzhia region. The fighting also continues in the direction of Bakhmut where Ukrainian troops––slowly albeit steadily––seize areas south of the city.
Disinformation as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare at the Polish-Belarusian Border
The Belarusian or Eastern migration and border crisis is one of the biggest hybrid conflicts Central Europe has faced in the 21st century. Although the conflict has faded in the lights of the war in Ukraine since 2022, it remains a live crisis, with its unique challenges, and poses a constant security threat to the states involved and to the European Union as a whole.
Policy Brief Within Kremlin Watchers Project – 09/2023
In recent months, the Czech Republic has witnessed a surge in disinformation campaigns, posing significant challenges to its democratic fabric and information ecosystem.
Russia Again Hits Ukrainian Energy Facilities
As winter is coming, Russia once again targets Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure to wreak havoc across the country. The government in Kyiv says its air defense has become even more complex and experienced to repel further attacks.
Wagner Fighters Return to Ukraine, Perhaps As Part of Russia’s National Guard
Thousands of former Wagner Group fighters are a valuable asset that the Kremlin, involved in a bloody war in Ukraine, will never give up. The process of recruiting former members of the Wagner Group for MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs) or the regular army seems to make little progress. Hence, the Kremlin has decided to stage discussions regarding the potential inclusion of Wagner units within the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia).
Economic cooperation between the US and Mexico – will Mexico replace China?
In the latest step, China has successfully extended its curbs on iPhones to local government workers and state-owned companies following central government employees. Bejign’s move weighed heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, with Apple shares falling.
China Extends iPhone Ban for Local Administration Employees
In the latest step, China has successfully extended its curbs on iPhones to local government workers and state-owned companies following central government employees. Bejign’s move weighed heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, with Apple shares falling.
Warsaw Institute
