Russia Monitor Monthly 04/2018
Contents
The head of SVR in Serbia. What is the Russian intelligence up to?
An april visit of the head of Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation in Belgrade is a sign that in the upcoming months one should expect new destabilising Russian actions. The starting point would be probably the Serbian part of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Kremlin’s help to indebted Rosneft
Rosneft gained another monopoly for fuel supplies to the state project or institution. This time it is about Roscosmos and its rockets. Igor Sechin’s company also services on an exclusive basis several other big institutions, from the Investigative Committee to MFA.
How Yanukovych facilitated the annexation of Crimea
There is no doubt that if it was not for the policy of President Viktor Yanukovych (in office in the years 2010-2014), the annexation of Crimea would not have happened, or at least it would not have been that easy for Russia.
New Term, Same Energy Policy
Vladimir Putin managed to win the presidential election mostly thanks to his announcement that he would continue and maintain the current political course.
Transneft is leaking
A state-owned oil pipeline operator in Russia wants to enhance powers of its security service. Transneft have problems with dealing with increasing number of thefts from oil pipelines.
Kremlin, FSB and the war on waste in the background
A growing number of protests in Moscow Oblast against the storage of hazardous waste is becoming more and more political. Governor Andrey Vorobev has some noticeable problems in coping with the situation.
Libya: bad news for the Kremlin
Everything points to the fact that Russia lost a political strategist in Libya, on whom it counted for several years. True elimination of general Khalifa Haftar opens the gate for struggle for control over the most powerful military formation in Libya.
Putin forever? The operation has started
According to the current constitution Vladimir Putin is to leave the Kremlin in 2024. If he wants to govern after that time, as everything suggests, he will have to change the law.
Post-electoral price shock
Russians are paying more for petrol from day to day. Fast increase in prices has started almost the day after the presidential elections. The record was set in March – last such a high fuel price was in 2012.
Syrian Civil War. Who is afraid of mercenaries
Messages pointing to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Syria are still coming. After the massacre in Euphrates Valley in early February, Moscow did not change its policy and is still using the services of, so called, Wagner group.
Nord Stream 2. Berlin is holding up, time is running
Russia and Germany regroup their forces in the battle of Nord Stream 2 project realisation. Both countries play the game. They try to lure their project opponents with maintaining Russian gas transit through Ukraine after 2019.
Medvedev Pacified
A current PM would probably remain in function but his political influences would be much smaller. If earlier any political camp focused around Dmitry Medvedev existed, now it is a thing of the past.
Gazprom not relishing the Novatek’s LNG
A next stage of the Russian liquefied gas sector development has begun. With the beginning of April, an export terminal of Yamal LNG started fulfilling long-term contracts – mainly with receivers from Asia.
Estonia vs. Russian spies. A new report
Estonian Kaitsepolitsei counterintelligence published an annual report for 2017. It shows that the activity of Russian intelligence on the Estonian territory is still intense. This is reflected e.g. by the last year arrest of four Russian spies.
The largest Russian oil buyers
The Chinese pay the most, the Belarusian pay the least. But the biggest part of Russian oil is bought by agents belonging to Russian oil extraction companies.
Soldiers and Gas. The USA Defends the Baltic Allies
A summit in Washington, LNG supply contracts, announced arrival of several hundred American soldiers. The United States strongly stresses the meaning of the alliance with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Of course, this is mainly a sign for Moscow, which does not abandon the attempts at destabilising its three former republics, now the easternmost NATO’s territories.
A Petroleum Flirtation, but Not a Marriage
Saudi Arabia and Russia are the biggest producers of crude oil in the world. They jointly supply 21 percent of the global oil demand. Both countries are also key members of the agreement with oil producers from outside OPEC on limiting crude output.
Yekaterinburg: Destroy the Opposition
Immediately after his recent re-election, Vladimir Putin has decided to intensify the war with the opposition. As for the latter, it has been scattered and weak and it has some importance only at local level. Such is the case of Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth largest city, whose mayor openly criticises the Kremlin and expresses support for opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Russian rockets over the Baltic Sea
Almost at the last moment, Russia informed that it would conduct rocket tests in the Baltic Sea, which caused serious concerns in the countries neighbouring that sea.
A Timchenko’s Partner Benefits from the Tragedy in Kemerovo
The fire in the shopping mall in Kemerovo shocked Russia to such an extent that the Kremlin had to change the governor of the region. Aman Tuleyev, who had governed Kuzbas since 1997 was forced to resign. He was replaced by his current deputy Sergej Civilev.
Warsaw Institute
