Russia Monitor Monthly 7/23

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Ukrainian Counteroffensive Advancing Slowly in South and Bakhmut Direction

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Advancing Slowly in South and Bakhmut Direction

Two months into the long-awaited counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have not made any substantial gains on the frontline. The Russians had to withdraw on several sections along the frontline. Ukrainian forces have retaken the biggest swathes of territory around Bakhmut and along the border of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and southern Zaporizhzhya regions. Ukraine’s strategy still involves far-reaching wariness of personnel and equipment losses and efforts to impair Russian military, materiel, and supply lines behind the frontline.

Russian Forces Intensify Shelling of Kupyansk

Russian Forces Intensify Shelling of Kupyansk

Heavy fighting has emerged in the easternmost section of the Russian-Ukrainian frontline. Russian troops are trying to break through Ukraine’s defenses in the Kupyansk direction and capture the city. In addition, Ukrainian forces are getting pummeled by dozens of air strikes and artillery barrages from Russian territory. A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, a sign that the Ukrainian military command might seek to withdraw from a strip of land and form a defense line along the river.

How to contain an increasingly assertive China?

How to contain an increasingly assertive China?

Tensions in the South China Sea are on the rise. The United States has just pledged to defend Philippine vessels if they are attacked over there, after Beijing and Manila blamed each other after a China Coast Guard ship fired water cannons at a Philippine boat. The incident may well be deliberately provoked by China to test the commitment of the United States in the region.

NATO and the Indo-Pacific

NATO and the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific is arguably the new center of geopolitical and economic power not only for the United States and Canada but also for other member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The European consensus on climate policy is unraveling

The European consensus on climate policy is unraveling

The departure of EU “climate” Commissioner Frans Timmermans, who is hoping to do well in the upcoming Dutch election, may well be a pivotal moment. More than anyone else, Timmermans is the face of the European Union’s drive for ever more intrusive regulations to combat climate change.

Kremlin Watchers Report: Trends in the Czech Disinformation Scene

Kremlin Watchers Report: Trends in the Czech Disinformation Scene

The Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory marked 500 days in early July. During this time, a number of disinformation narratives flowing from Russia have been circulating in the Czech internet environment, aiming to turn public opinion against Ukraine and undermine trust in the government. Below is an overview of the current disinformation tendencies spreading through the Czech internet in June and July 2023.

Russian Bear of Influence in Slovakia

Russian Bear of Influence in Slovakia

The penetration of pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives into the Slovak information space has been occurring since 2014, when the emphasis on deceptive narratives about the alleged oppression of the Russian minority in Ukraine, the Western political and societal decadency, or the allegedly strong background of the far right in Ukrainian society and politics, intensified.

The U.S. Has Agreed to Provide Ukraine with Cluster Munitions

The U.S. Has Agreed to Provide Ukraine with Cluster Munitions

On June 18-19th U.S. Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, travelled to the People’s Republic of China for meetings with President Xi Jinping, Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

Russian Attack in Northern Ukraine Did Not Crush Ukrainian Spirits

Russian Attack in Northern Ukraine Did Not Crush Ukrainian Spirits

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces has not yet gained the momentum that some overly optimistic observers anticipated. Ukrainian forces seek to minimize losses while weakening the enemy by depleting its artillery stocks and targeting facilities behind the front line. And yet the Russian assault on the Kupyansk sector shows Ukraine being close to breaking off a section of the front line––an effort its forces have made continuously since early June. Otherwise, the Russian military command would not have dispatched poorly trained troops to target Ukraine’s fortified positions.

Rosgvardia Receives Heavy Weaponry After Wagner’s Failed Rebellion

Rosgvardia Receives Heavy Weaponry After Wagner’s Failed Rebellion

Wagner’s mutiny made the Russian regime realize how important it is to keep military leaders at bay, also to thwart any rebellion that might spark in the country. It was for that reason that the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) was established to combat “terrorism and extremism” within the country.

Tensions Run High in the Black Sea

Tensions Run High in the Black Sea

Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks. The move comes as a response to Moscow withdrawing from a U.N.-brokered deal allowing passage to cargo ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports.

Not Only Wagner: Russian Offensive in Libya

Not Only Wagner: Russian Offensive in Libya

Libya has emerged as Russia’s latest expeditionary front and deployment area for private military companies, including Wagner Group. After Wagner failed, the Kremlin began fixing ties with Libya’s most important players. Russian oil companies, including Tatneft, are ready to resume oil production in Libya.

Shoigu, Gerasimov Continue Firing Senior Commanders

Shoigu, Gerasimov Continue Firing Senior Commanders

After a failed Wagner mutiny, top Russian military officials Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov carried out a radical change in Russia’s military leadership. That has not impacted Moscow’s war in Ukraine. It is known what eventually prevails––consolidated efforts of Russian commanders or the sacking of generals at the expense of people blindly obeying the orders of Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who since January has been in charge of what Russia names its “special operation” in Ukraine.

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