Russia Monitor Monthly 3/23
Content
Russian-Chinese Fossil Fuel Partnership: Putin Humiliated After Xi’s Visit to Moscow
That was not the Putin-Xi summit, but a visit a big brother paid to the younger sibling, the one that is weakening every single month. The Kremlin failed to secure robust support from China and had to swallow further economic concessions to Beijing. Russia is turning more and more into a fuel foothold for China.
Russia’s Lukoil and LNG Production in the Republic of Congo
Russia’s Lukoil energy company said a project in the Congo in which it is involved would begin producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) later this year.
Moldova Braces For Natural Gas Supply Shortage
The Russian energy giant Gazprom may completely halt the gas supplies to Moldova. The government in Chisinau is now planning ways to deal with such eventuality amid a months-long dispute over gas supplies and their price. Moldova sends the entire volume of gas it is receiving from Russia to the hydropower plant in Dniester in Transnistria, a breakaway governing region. Moldova then gets electricity in return.
Arch foes Iran, Saudi Arabia Agree to Restore Ties
Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they had agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties after seven years of hostility. The agreement came after Chinese-brokered talks held in Beijing, which could raise the ire of Washington.
Putin Pays Bizarre Visit to Occupied Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin made a surprise trip to war-ravaged Mariupol. The visit came after Putin visited Crimea to mark the anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Two days before, the International Criminal Court had issued a warrant for his arrest on war crimes charges. The dictator’s visit to the occupied areas of Ukraine stirred up major controversy.
An Insider of Visegrad Four: Is the nuclear energy good for the Economy of Poland?
Electricity began its conquering journey after the 1881 Paris World Expo, when the exhibited light bulb impressed the audience. Since then, various methods have been tried to meet the continuously growing demand for electricity.
Polish, Ukrainian Gas Operators Sign Memorandum of Cooperation
This is another major step in bringing Poland and Ukraine together in joint energy projects. Poland’s Gaz-System and the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) signed a memorandum of cooperation providing for increased gas pipeline capacity, aligned gas transmission systems in both Poland and Ukraine, and joint efforts to explore the possibilities for the transmission of biomethane and green hydrogen.
One Year Later, U.S. Stands With Ukraine
Monday, February 20, 2023, the world was startled by the news of John Biden’s visit to Kyiv. Some experts described it as a surprise trip to the capital of embattled Ukraine. The visit had a highly symbolic significance emphasising Ukraine’s resistance to the world’s second army. Biden in Kyiv, commemorated the first anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and highlighted the role of the Central and Eastern European region.
Iran To Buy Russian Su-35 Fighter Jets
Not surprisingly, Iran has reached a deal to buy advanced Su-35 fighter planes from Russia, expanding a relationship that has seen Iranian-built drones used in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Both states have been in talks for months now to purchase fighter jets, a sign of ever-increasing military cooperation between Russia and Iran.
U.S. President Joe Biden Arrives In Kyiv And Warsaw
U.S. President Joe Biden traveled to Poland and Ukraine on February 20–23. While the White House announced Biden would visit Poland, the U.S. leader traveled into a war zone in Ukraine amid a cloak of secrecy. In Kyiv, he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while in Warsaw he addressed Poles in a speech and attended an extraordinary summit of the Bucharest Nine.
Policy Brief. Kremlin Watchers Movement Report
Russia uses disinformation as a foreign policy tool, and its military actions in Ukraine are supported by disinformation operations. Poland, as one of Ukraine’s main allies, is an important country against which the Kremlin uses disinformation.
Biden’s Kyiv Visit Sends Strong Message to Moscow and West
U.S. President Joe Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv on February 20, ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit carried huge symbolism as while in Kyiv, the U.S. president promised new military aid to Ukraine. Biden’s trip to war-stricken Ukraine was a clear sign of strong support for Ukraine from the United States sent to both Russia and some Western states unwilling to provide assistance to Kyiv. Perhaps the Kremlin considered Biden’s trip to Kyiv was no longer just an effort to save Ukraine but to smash Russia militarily.
Russia Passes Law Fixing Urals Rate For Tax Calculations
Russia is struggling to stick to the federal budget in 2023. This year Moscow will see a modest cash inflow to the budget. Moscow will never get such a petrodollar lifeline as it got last spring. One idea to save the budget is through new tax calculations.
Belarus, Gazprom Sign Gas Supply Deal
Belarus’ Ministry of Energy signed a protocol with Gazprom on the process of establishing prices for natural gas delivery to Belarus by 2025. The tariff is set at $128.5 per 1,000 m3, as in 2022. A Gazprom-dependent gas intermediary and Gazprom also set some rules for natural gas supply to Belarus.
Russian Offensive in Donbas Did Not Scare off Ukrainians
Instead of a lightning thrust, Moscow has dialed up offensives in a handful of spots, resulting in fighting that is slow and extremely tiring to both sides. Russia has commenced its long-awaited offensive as six months passed since Moscow’s last gains in Ukraine’s Donbas. This is where Russian forces are now advancing while seeking to control the southern front spanning from Dnipro to Melitopol in case of a Ukrainian counter-offensive effort.
Ukraine Imports Gas via Moldova
In early February, Ukraine launched virtual reverse operations to supply gas to neighboring Moldova. Thus Ukraine has access to the Balkan gas grid while Moldova has strengthened its energy posture to the detriment of Gazprom.
The Balloon Escalation
On Saturday, February 04, 2023, the U.S. Air Force F-22 stealth jet fighter shot down what the U.S. identified as a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. Similar events involving unidentified Chinese balloons have happened before, but this incident has a symbolic significance. The shot-down balloon becomes the next escalation point in relations between the U. S. and China.
With Record-High Sales, Novatek Reveals Ambitious Plans
In 2022, Russia’s biggest private gas firm Novatek made a record net profit, up 50 percent from last year. That is due to soaring liquefied natural gas exports in Russia. In the past, unlike Gazprom, Novatek put a safe bet on LNG production and now benefits from that.
The Greatest Challenges to Ukraine’s Accession to the European Union
On February 28, 2022, just days after Russia’s renewed aggression against Ukraine, the country submitted its formal application for membership in the European Union (EU). Ukraine’s bid for EU accession had been a long-awaited goal, but it had been hindered by the significant obstacle of Russia’s 2014 attack on Ukraine. It had been used as a pretext by Western European countries to delay the membership process.
Putin Pulls Back From Reset-Era Nuclear Arms Control Deal
What Western countries learned from the recent address of the Russian president is that Moscow is willing to pull back from a nuclear arms control deal. Vladimir Putin indeed said that Moscow is “suspending” its participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms reduction deal between the U.S. and Russia since 2010. It is just a formality as Moscow no longer complies with the nuclear deal.
Warsaw Institute
