RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 6/2020

Contents
Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

The Polish-German relations at the turn of 2020-2021, although marked by a difficult history, sometimes even by mutual misunderstanding, are relatively correct now. This is thanks to good personal relations between Polish and German politicians (presidents and heads of government) and very good economic relations. Germany is a key trade partner for Poland.

Welcome to Cyberwar

Welcome to Cyberwar

Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?

Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?

The article is a follow-up to the text by the Jagiellonian Club Przez Bałkany do Brukseli? Przyszłość Partnerstwa Wschodniego [Through the Balkans to Brussels? The future of the Eastern Partnership] whose authors compared the potential of the Western Balkans and the three outstanding Eastern Partnership nations.

The Awakening Of Private Military Companies

The Awakening Of Private Military Companies

Private military companies, or PMCs, are independent corporations that trade military services through a wide range of opportunities they have due to their corporate nature.

Iraq’s Two Rivers

Iraq’s Two Rivers

To those with tenacity to remain hopeful of a peaceful and stable political-operational situation in Iraq, taking seriously the cold and brutal geopolitical realities could benefit from some creative thinking. Incomplete information is a given in policymaking decisions. Fortunately, the solutions need not be perfect – just good enough.

Putin’s Constitution

Putin’s Constitution

With a constitutional overhaul of the balance of power in Russia, Vladimir Putin is pushing to consolidate his eternal grip on power. As Russia is seeing a slew of rifts in its politics, economy as well as social matters, any attempts to repeat its past ‘tandemocracy’, or the joint leadership of Russia between 2008 and 2012, are considered by the Kremlin as far too risky.

Russia Close to Reach Oil Output Quotas

Russia Close to Reach Oil Output Quotas

Throughout June, Russian oil and gas condensate production averaged 1.272 million tons, or 9.323 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia has stuck to its duties under the OPEC+ oil cuts, official data shows.

Turkey Buys Less Russian Gas

Turkey Buys Less Russian Gas

Turkey has been importing less gas from Russia yet the increase of Russian energy commodities is illusory, with Turkish data showing a significant drop in natural gas imports from Iran. Also, Turkey’s liquefied natural gas imports have outpaced the purchase of natural gas through pipelines.

A Holiday for Putin’s “Democracy”: Outcome Known From the Top

A Holiday for Putin’s “Democracy”: Outcome Known From the Top

The proposed constitutional amendments have come into force, with a nationwide plebiscite being nothing but a political theater. The public vote on them is seen as more of a national opinion poll, designed to lend legitimacy to the amendments and solidify Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.

Hungary to Join TurkStream Gas Pipeline

Hungary to Join TurkStream Gas Pipeline

The supervisory board of Hungary’s pipeline operator FGSZ greenlighted a plan of investment into the construction of a gas pipeline to Serbia by October 2021, the company said in a statement.

Lukoil Starts Drilling in the Caspian Sea

Lukoil Starts Drilling in the Caspian Sea

Russian oil major Lukoil said it has started drilling of an exploration well at the Shirotno-Rakushechnaya prospect structure north of the V.I. Grayfer oilfield. The company has also begun to study Khazri and Titonskaya features in the south of the same sea area.

Russia Is Afraid of U.S. Troops Moving from Germany to Poland

Russia Is Afraid of U.S. Troops Moving from Germany to Poland

The Trump administration agreed that an additional 1,000 U.S. troops would be added to Poland, the sole outcome of the latest round of the U.S.-Polish talks that confirmed what the two parties had concluded a year ago. In Moscow, many say that would push the balance of power throughout the region in favor of NATO countries.

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