RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 6/2020
Contents
The Awakening Of Private Military Companies
Private military companies, or PMCs, are independent corporations that trade military services through a wide range of opportunities they have due to their corporate nature.
Iraq’s Two Rivers
To those with tenacity to remain hopeful of a peaceful and stable political-operational situation in Iraq, taking seriously the cold and brutal geopolitical realities could benefit from some creative thinking. Incomplete information is a given in policymaking decisions. Fortunately, the solutions need not be perfect – just good enough.
Putin’s Constitution
With a constitutional overhaul of the balance of power in Russia, Vladimir Putin is pushing to consolidate his eternal grip on power. As Russia is seeing a slew of rifts in its politics, economy as well as social matters, any attempts to repeat its past ‘tandemocracy’, or the joint leadership of Russia between 2008 and 2012, are considered by the Kremlin as far too risky.
Russia Close to Reach Oil Output Quotas
Throughout June, Russian oil and gas condensate production averaged 1.272 million tons, or 9.323 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia has stuck to its duties under the OPEC+ oil cuts, official data shows.
Turkey Buys Less Russian Gas
Turkey has been importing less gas from Russia yet the increase of Russian energy commodities is illusory, with Turkish data showing a significant drop in natural gas imports from Iran. Also, Turkey’s liquefied natural gas imports have outpaced the purchase of natural gas through pipelines.
A Holiday for Putin’s “Democracy”: Outcome Known From the Top
The proposed constitutional amendments have come into force, with a nationwide plebiscite being nothing but a political theater. The public vote on them is seen as more of a national opinion poll, designed to lend legitimacy to the amendments and solidify Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
Russia Is the Main Oil Supplier for Belarus. An Alternative? Symbolic
Following an oil struggle between Belarus and Russia, there have occurred some shifts in how Minsk buys its crude supplies. Its purchases come mostly from Russia yet with no firm guarantees.
Hungary to Join TurkStream Gas Pipeline
The supervisory board of Hungary’s pipeline operator FGSZ greenlighted a plan of investment into the construction of a gas pipeline to Serbia by October 2021, the company said in a statement.
An Increase in U.S. and Russian Aerial Activity over the North Pacific
The United States has taken action to respond to Russia’s beefed-up aerial activity around each other’s border in the Pacific. Recent weeks have seen a couple of incidents with both sides intercepting each other’s planes flying towards the two’s borders.
Rosneft-Transneft War: Russian Oil Pipeline Operator Warns of Financial Disaster
Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft has reiterated the company would be in big trouble once oil transportation costs slumped significantly sometime soon, halving the company’s total income.
Lukoil Starts Drilling in the Caspian Sea
Russian oil major Lukoil said it has started drilling of an exploration well at the Shirotno-Rakushechnaya prospect structure north of the V.I. Grayfer oilfield. The company has also begun to study Khazri and Titonskaya features in the south of the same sea area.
Russia’s Urals Exports to Plunge Sharply in July
Russia’s exports of its flagship Urals crude oil grade are set to plunge in July by 40 percent from June levels to about 785,000 barrels a day.
Russia Is Afraid of U.S. Troops Moving from Germany to Poland
The Trump administration agreed that an additional 1,000 U.S. troops would be added to Poland, the sole outcome of the latest round of the U.S.-Polish talks that confirmed what the two parties had concluded a year ago. In Moscow, many say that would push the balance of power throughout the region in favor of NATO countries.
Did Russian Intelligence Officers Offer Taliban Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops?
Russian intelligence officers for the military intelligence GRU recently offered money to Taliban militants in Afghanistan as rewards if they killed the US or allied troops there, according to the latest press reports some would see as not surprising.
Paul Whelan: A Victim of FSB Provocation
There is yet another sign that Paul Whelan, the former marine detained on spy charges, was taken as collateral in negotiations to free Russian agents being held in U.S. prisons. The American is not going to appeal his prison sentence, his lawyer said.
Russia Says Concerned Over Trump-Duda Meeting
The Kremlin is voicing growing concern over the Polish President’s planned visit to the White House and Washington’s ambition to extend its military presence in Poland. Warsaw is rising in importance whereas Berlin is steadily losing it.
Putin (Again) Wages Memory War
In a lengthy essay published in U.S. magazine The National Interest, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the topic of both World War II and the current affairs worldwide. Though stuffed with a number of references to many other documents, the historian-like exegesis is far from being a scientific paper.
The Arctic Grows in Importance as Russia Establishes New Military District
Unsurprisingly, the Northern Fleet has been given the same status as Russia’s four other military districts. This comes in response to the flexing of military muscles in Russia’s Far North once the Kremlin has put the Arctic at the very top of its agenda.
Coronavirus in Russia: Putin Has Ratings Problem
The fall in Vladimir Putin’s popularity ratings is bucking the trend. The pandemic and much-criticized state policies, including the president’s self-isolation from Russian society, have created a less comfortable environment for the Kremlin while only speeding up some alarming shifts.
Russia’s Plan For Libya: Diplomatic Solutions Instead of Hired Guns
Following a series of setbacks for Russian-backed military commander Khalifa Haftar, there comes a severe threat of the collapse of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Thus, the Kremlin is seeking to bolster efforts towards compliance with Russian-Turkish bilateral agreements on a ceasefire in Libya.
Warsaw Institute
