RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 6/2020
Contents
Four Challenges For NATO 2030
On the verge of the third decade of the twenty-first century and after many years of being associated with operations abroad, the North Atlantic Alliance is returning to its roots by performing missions to ensure collective defense. What remains the chief adversary of NATO is Russia, but the military bloc is also aware of the China challenge.
Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry
The year 2020 brought a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flare-up in the fighting between the Azerbaijani military and ethnic Armenian forces of the breakaway region resulted in a peace deal that humiliated Armenia that had to return 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as well as all transit routes from the disputed enclave to Armenia.
Where are the Polish-German relations heading?
The Polish-German relations at the turn of 2020-2021, although marked by a difficult history, sometimes even by mutual misunderstanding, are relatively correct now. This is thanks to good personal relations between Polish and German politicians (presidents and heads of government) and very good economic relations. Germany is a key trade partner for Poland.
Welcome to Cyberwar
Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.
From the History of the Belarusian Revolution
Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.
US Presidential Election 2020. Principles, Specificity, Influence on Foreign Policy
On November 3, the 2020 United States presidential election will be held. The main rivals are the current President Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, and Joe Biden, a Democrat known primarily for his role as the Vice President under Barack Obama.
Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats
The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?
The article is a follow-up to the text by the Jagiellonian Club Przez Bałkany do Brukseli? Przyszłość Partnerstwa Wschodniego [Through the Balkans to Brussels? The future of the Eastern Partnership] whose authors compared the potential of the Western Balkans and the three outstanding Eastern Partnership nations.
The Awakening Of Private Military Companies
Private military companies, or PMCs, are independent corporations that trade military services through a wide range of opportunities they have due to their corporate nature.
Iraq’s Two Rivers
To those with tenacity to remain hopeful of a peaceful and stable political-operational situation in Iraq, taking seriously the cold and brutal geopolitical realities could benefit from some creative thinking. Incomplete information is a given in policymaking decisions. Fortunately, the solutions need not be perfect – just good enough.
Putin’s Constitution
With a constitutional overhaul of the balance of power in Russia, Vladimir Putin is pushing to consolidate his eternal grip on power. As Russia is seeing a slew of rifts in its politics, economy as well as social matters, any attempts to repeat its past ‘tandemocracy’, or the joint leadership of Russia between 2008 and 2012, are considered by the Kremlin as far too risky.
Russia Close to Reach Oil Output Quotas
Throughout June, Russian oil and gas condensate production averaged 1.272 million tons, or 9.323 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia has stuck to its duties under the OPEC+ oil cuts, official data shows.
Turkey Buys Less Russian Gas
Turkey has been importing less gas from Russia yet the increase of Russian energy commodities is illusory, with Turkish data showing a significant drop in natural gas imports from Iran. Also, Turkey’s liquefied natural gas imports have outpaced the purchase of natural gas through pipelines.
A Holiday for Putin’s “Democracy”: Outcome Known From the Top
The proposed constitutional amendments have come into force, with a nationwide plebiscite being nothing but a political theater. The public vote on them is seen as more of a national opinion poll, designed to lend legitimacy to the amendments and solidify Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
Russia Is the Main Oil Supplier for Belarus. An Alternative? Symbolic
Following an oil struggle between Belarus and Russia, there have occurred some shifts in how Minsk buys its crude supplies. Its purchases come mostly from Russia yet with no firm guarantees.
Hungary to Join TurkStream Gas Pipeline
The supervisory board of Hungary’s pipeline operator FGSZ greenlighted a plan of investment into the construction of a gas pipeline to Serbia by October 2021, the company said in a statement.
An Increase in U.S. and Russian Aerial Activity over the North Pacific
The United States has taken action to respond to Russia’s beefed-up aerial activity around each other’s border in the Pacific. Recent weeks have seen a couple of incidents with both sides intercepting each other’s planes flying towards the two’s borders.
Rosneft-Transneft War: Russian Oil Pipeline Operator Warns of Financial Disaster
Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft has reiterated the company would be in big trouble once oil transportation costs slumped significantly sometime soon, halving the company’s total income.
Lukoil Starts Drilling in the Caspian Sea
Russian oil major Lukoil said it has started drilling of an exploration well at the Shirotno-Rakushechnaya prospect structure north of the V.I. Grayfer oilfield. The company has also begun to study Khazri and Titonskaya features in the south of the same sea area.
Russia’s Urals Exports to Plunge Sharply in July
Russia’s exports of its flagship Urals crude oil grade are set to plunge in July by 40 percent from June levels to about 785,000 barrels a day.
Warsaw Institute
