RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 5/2020

Contents
Four Challenges For NATO 2030

Four Challenges For NATO 2030

On the verge of the third decade of the twenty-first century and after many years of being associated with operations abroad, the North Atlantic Alliance is returning to its roots by performing missions to ensure collective defense. What remains the chief adversary of NATO is Russia, but the military bloc is also aware of the China challenge.

Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry

Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry

The year 2020 brought a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flare-up in the fighting between the Azerbaijani military and ethnic Armenian forces of the breakaway region resulted in a peace deal that humiliated Armenia that had to return 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as well as all transit routes from the disputed enclave to Armenia.

Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

The Polish-German relations at the turn of 2020-2021, although marked by a difficult history, sometimes even by mutual misunderstanding, are relatively correct now. This is thanks to good personal relations between Polish and German politicians (presidents and heads of government) and very good economic relations. Germany is a key trade partner for Poland.

Welcome to Cyberwar

Welcome to Cyberwar

Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?

Can Western Balkans Serve as Role Model of Integration for Eastern Partnership?

The article is a follow-up to the text by the Jagiellonian Club Przez Bałkany do Brukseli? Przyszłość Partnerstwa Wschodniego [Through the Balkans to Brussels? The future of the Eastern Partnership] whose authors compared the potential of the Western Balkans and the three outstanding Eastern Partnership nations.

The Awakening Of Private Military Companies

The Awakening Of Private Military Companies

Private military companies, or PMCs, are independent corporations that trade military services through a wide range of opportunities they have due to their corporate nature.

Iraq’s Two Rivers

Iraq’s Two Rivers

To those with tenacity to remain hopeful of a peaceful and stable political-operational situation in Iraq, taking seriously the cold and brutal geopolitical realities could benefit from some creative thinking. Incomplete information is a given in policymaking decisions. Fortunately, the solutions need not be perfect – just good enough.

Putin’s Constitution

Putin’s Constitution

With a constitutional overhaul of the balance of power in Russia, Vladimir Putin is pushing to consolidate his eternal grip on power. As Russia is seeing a slew of rifts in its politics, economy as well as social matters, any attempts to repeat its past ‘tandemocracy’, or the joint leadership of Russia between 2008 and 2012, are considered by the Kremlin as far too risky.

Russia, Belarus Squabble Over Gas Deliveries In New Chapter of Energy War

Russia, Belarus Squabble Over Gas Deliveries In New Chapter of Energy War

Belarus seeks to buy Russian gas for less, starting this year. Russian state energy group Gazprom is yet wary of resuming talks on an agreement it concluded with Belarus back in February, saying it will sit at a negotiating table only after the issue of Belarus’ gas debt is settled.

Russia–NATO Tensions Continue On Both Flanks

Russia–NATO Tensions Continue On Both Flanks

Russian aircraft have made a number of provocative moves both in the Baltic Sea, as well as along the bloc’s southern wing, in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. There are more and more reports of Russian jets seizing NATO planes.

Russia Aims To Boost Military Facilities in Syria

Russia Aims To Boost Military Facilities in Syria

The Kremlin has decided to put an end to the years-long rivalry between its foreign and defense ministries in Syria. President Vladimir Putin reportedly tasked both with securing additional land and naval rights in Syria.

Russian Economy Comes Badly Because Of Pandemic

Russian Economy Comes Badly Because Of Pandemic

Russia imposed a “non-working” period across the country at the end of April in a move that lowered the country’s industrial output and – along with an energy crisis and a shaky Russian economy – thus heaping pressure on the country’s financial strength.

Gazprom Is Turning Towards China, But There Are Problems

Gazprom Is Turning Towards China, But There Are Problems

With the gloomy prospects for the European gas market, Gazprom is making efforts to send more energy eastwards. Beijing is keen to buy more gas from Russia, yet it is wary of subsidizing Gazprom’s fresh energy projects.

Rosneft, Transneft In New Feud Over Transportation Tariffs

Rosneft, Transneft In New Feud Over Transportation Tariffs

The CEO of Rosneft, Russia’s crude oil major, made a proposal to cut transportation tariffs via the pipeline network that is managed by the Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft. The latter firm said these hit to a record-low level, with money flowing out from the federal budget, into pockets of private shareholders.

Tensions Rise in the Black Sea

Tensions Rise in the Black Sea

Moscow’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine has built up Russia’s military capabilities in the Black Sea. Not only did the Kremlin push Ukraine out from the basin, but it also made its way for testing its missiles there.

Russia Unveils Rescue Plan for Oil Sector

Russia Unveils Rescue Plan for Oil Sector

Russia is dependent on trading hydrocarbons, while the overall condition of the country’s oil sector serves a pivotal role in its entire economy. It has always been favored by the state. Certainly this seems apparent as the world has plunged into a deep crisis.

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