Russia Monitor Articles
Russia’s Tatneft Discovers New Oil Field in Libya
Russian oil firm Tatneft and National Oil Corporation (NOC) of Libya said they had successfully drilled a well on an oil block of Libya’s Ghadames Basin, some 330 kilometers south of Tripoli. This might be a step towards restoring Russian oil production in a divided African country although oil firms are unlikely to get involved to the same extent as before the fall of Gaddafi.
U.S. Sanctions Wagner Chief In Mali
The U.S. has made efforts to curb what it says are Wagner’s destabilizing activities. Washington accused the Russian private army of trying to obscure its efforts to acquire military equipment for use in Ukraine.
Anti-Putin Russians Launch Cross-Border Attack on Belgorod
Anti-Putin militia entered the western Russian region of Belgorod not to seize Russian territory or dismantle Russian forces. The aim was to exert psychological pressure on Russia in four aspects. First, that was to show that the regime was incapable of protecting its territory while continuing an assault on Ukraine. Secondly, it was a reminder that among the Russians some oppose Putin and his regime. Third, it was designed to deflect Moscow’s attention from the front line where a Ukrainian counteroffensive is drawing near. Last but not least, the incursion sought to cover claims that the eastern city of Bakhmut was under Russian control after months of heavy battle.
Russia Is Bracing For Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Ukraine’s effective counterattacks near Bakhmut have shrouded Russian forces in confusion. That might mean a Ukrainian counteroffensive is drawing near. Perhaps Ukrainian troops are seeking to distract Russian attention as the authorities in Moscow have no clue where or when a Ukrainian assault might happen. Despite that, the Kremlin is making continuous efforts to thwart a Ukrainian success.
Russia, Iran Continue Military And Economic Rapprochement
Seeing the United States as its common foe, Tehran and Moscow have embarked on deepening cooperation amid massive Western sanctions. Iran supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while Moscow is helping Tehran in the Middle East. This is confirmed by recent meetings between top Russian and Iranian officials.
Russian Seaborne Oil Exports Hit Record High
Russian seaborne oil product exports rebounded to the highest level since the start of its war with Ukraine, before it invaded Ukraine, despite Western sanctions. The shipping data shows that Russian product exports headed to India and China surged. India makes money from processing cheap Russian oil in its refineries before reselling it to Europe. Indian oil is increasingly used to produce diesel and aviation fuel.
Victory Day (?) in Russia
Russia has seen the most scaled-back annual holiday marking the defeat of Nazi Germany in at least fifteen years. Many Victory Day events across the country were canceled or pared back because of security concerns and fears of Ukrainian strikes, and the annual military parade in Moscow was surprisingly modest. Moscow has felt bitterly disappointed with its lack of military success in Ukraine while fearing a looming Ukrainian assault.
China Hails Stronger Ties with Russia
If anyone hoped Beijing could mitigate Russia’s stance on Ukraine, it now seems that it is quite the opposite as China is embracing a new stance on Russia, fearful of Moscow’s military defeat. Beijing has sought to portray itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict, although it is increasingly favorable to Moscow. So far China has helped Russia politically while offering a lifeline––Beijing has increased purchases of Russian exports––but the signs are that the Chinese government could supply Moscow with military aid, too.
Russian Oil Exports Hit Record High Despite Western Sanctions
Supplies of seaborne Russian oil products totaled 3.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2023, a 31.2 percent year-on-year increase. It is over the previous record of 3.1 million bpd exported in February 2022.
Russia Delivers More LNG Supplies to Europe
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson has proposed further reducing demand for the bloc along with a plan to completely phase out Russian LNG supply to Europe, saying companies should not renew long-term contracts once current ones end.
Schwedt Refinery Remains Within Germany’s Government’s Mandate
Germany’s Federal Administrative Court threw out a case brought by Russian oil company Rosneft against Berlin’s move to place its German subsidiaries under trusteeship and take control of the Schwedt refinery. The German government seized control of Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing last September. Both had a controlling stake in a refinery in Schwedt in eastern Germany.
Russian Oil Revenues and Exports Fall Amid Sanctions
February crude oil and product exports averaged 7.5 million barrels a day, the lowest since September 2022 and a drop by 0.5 million bpd from January 2023. The flow of money into the country from international oil sales fell to $11.6 billion in February, down 43 percent from a year earlier and down $2.7 billion from January 2023.
“Ideology of Conservatism”: Putin Reportedly Readies For 2024 Re-Election
The Kremlin has started preparing for the 2024 presidential campaign based on the theme of conservative isolationist ideology, seeking to get a better score than in 2018.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Soars Considerably As Energy Revenues Drop Sharply
The beginning of this year looks gloomy for the Russian federal budget. Russia’s monthly fiscal deficit reached a record high amid the EU-imposed ban on seaborne crude oil exports and the increasing operational cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government is not likely to stick to the budget nor will it plug a budget shortfall. However, this does not prompt any disaster for Russia––at least now.
Warsaw Institute
