Russia Monitor Monthly 6/23
Content
Policy Brief Within Kremlin Watchers Project
Russia continues to fight for the hearts and minds of Westerners. At the very least, it is trying to create information chaos that undermines social cohesion and influences public opinion on Russian geopolitics.
Why should we be concerned about Russia’s ideological imperialism in Africa
Russia’s ideological imperialism knows no boundaries. Leaders of several African countries met with Russian leader Vladimir Putin during the Russia-Africa Summit hosted in St. Petersburg on the 27th and 28th of July 2023.
Russian Forces Intensify Shelling of Kupyansk
Heavy fighting has emerged in the easternmost section of the Russian-Ukrainian frontline. Russian troops are trying to break through Ukraine’s defenses in the Kupyansk direction and capture the city. In addition, Ukrainian forces are getting pummeled by dozens of air strikes and artillery barrages from Russian territory. A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the Ukrainian city of Kupyansk on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, a sign that the Ukrainian military command might seek to withdraw from a strip of land and form a defense line along the river.
How to contain an increasingly assertive China?
Tensions in the South China Sea are on the rise. The United States has just pledged to defend Philippine vessels if they are attacked over there, after Beijing and Manila blamed each other after a China Coast Guard ship fired water cannons at a Philippine boat. The incident may well be deliberately provoked by China to test the commitment of the United States in the region.
As Russian Oil Gets Cheaper, India Continues Buying Spree
Never before has India bought so cheap crude oil. More crude supplies from Russia drive oil and fuel consumption in India, which is now the world’s third-largest oil importer.
Disinformation and Democracy: Navigating the 2023 Political Landscape in Central and Eastern Europe
The year 2023 is marked as a political year in history. The agenda for 2023 features various countries including Poland and Slovakia gearing up for crucial elections, poised to respond to both domestic and external pressures. After the round of elections in China, Spain, and Turkey, citizens’ willingness to preserve the status quo has found ground in society.
China Welcomed Henry Kissinger as an “Old Friend”
During a recent surprise visit to China, 100 years old Henry Kissinger was welcomed as an “old friend” by Beijing’s highest dignitaries.
The European consensus on climate policy is unraveling
The departure of EU “climate” Commissioner Frans Timmermans, who is hoping to do well in the upcoming Dutch election, may well be a pivotal moment. More than anyone else, Timmermans is the face of the European Union’s drive for ever more intrusive regulations to combat climate change.
In brief: Taiwan Elections 2024: Key Factors and Points to Watch
As Taiwan gears up for its crucial 2024 elections in January, political dynamics with China and the U.S. are expected to intensify, drawing the attention of both domestic and international observers.
Kremlin Watchers Report: Trends in the Czech Disinformation Scene
The Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory marked 500 days in early July. During this time, a number of disinformation narratives flowing from Russia have been circulating in the Czech internet environment, aiming to turn public opinion against Ukraine and undermine trust in the government. Below is an overview of the current disinformation tendencies spreading through the Czech internet in June and July 2023.
Russian Bear of Influence in Slovakia
The penetration of pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives into the Slovak information space has been occurring since 2014, when the emphasis on deceptive narratives about the alleged oppression of the Russian minority in Ukraine, the Western political and societal decadency, or the allegedly strong background of the far right in Ukrainian society and politics, intensified.
Disarming Disinformation in Central and Eastern Europe
Disinformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains an enduring and concerning phenomenon, sparking discussions within academia and the political arena.
The U.S. Has Agreed to Provide Ukraine with Cluster Munitions
On June 18-19th U.S. Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, travelled to the People’s Republic of China for meetings with President Xi Jinping, Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Office Wang Yi, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
Russian Attack in Northern Ukraine Did Not Crush Ukrainian Spirits
Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces has not yet gained the momentum that some overly optimistic observers anticipated. Ukrainian forces seek to minimize losses while weakening the enemy by depleting its artillery stocks and targeting facilities behind the front line. And yet the Russian assault on the Kupyansk sector shows Ukraine being close to breaking off a section of the front line––an effort its forces have made continuously since early June. Otherwise, the Russian military command would not have dispatched poorly trained troops to target Ukraine’s fortified positions.
Rosgvardia Receives Heavy Weaponry After Wagner’s Failed Rebellion
Wagner’s mutiny made the Russian regime realize how important it is to keep military leaders at bay, also to thwart any rebellion that might spark in the country. It was for that reason that the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) was established to combat “terrorism and extremism” within the country.
Tensions Run High in the Black Sea
Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks. The move comes as a response to Moscow withdrawing from a U.N.-brokered deal allowing passage to cargo ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports.
Not Only Wagner: Russian Offensive in Libya
Libya has emerged as Russia’s latest expeditionary front and deployment area for private military companies, including Wagner Group. After Wagner failed, the Kremlin began fixing ties with Libya’s most important players. Russian oil companies, including Tatneft, are ready to resume oil production in Libya.
Shoigu, Gerasimov Continue Firing Senior Commanders
After a failed Wagner mutiny, top Russian military officials Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov carried out a radical change in Russia’s military leadership. That has not impacted Moscow’s war in Ukraine. It is known what eventually prevails––consolidated efforts of Russian commanders or the sacking of generals at the expense of people blindly obeying the orders of Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who since January has been in charge of what Russia names its “special operation” in Ukraine.
Wagner Closes Russian Base, Settles in Belarus
Wagner fighters will likely continue to redeploy from Russia to eastern Belarus in the coming month as the mercenary group has announced the closure of its Molkino military range in the Krasnodar region. Three weeks after a failed mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, the Kremlin and Wagner came to terms on how to handle Prigozhin’s assets.
Explosions on Kerch Bridge Linking Crimea and Russia
The bridge linking Russia to Crimea was attacked in an assault that showed Ukraine’s ability to attack strategic assets deep into the Russian-controlled territory. The attack dealt another humiliating blow to the Kremlin’s prestige, and possibly to its ability to supply troops occupying Ukraine’s southern regions. The bridge has been a supply route for food, fuel, and other supplies for Russian troops invading southern Ukraine.
Warsaw Institute
