Russia Monitor Monthly 4/23
Content
Between Political Alliance and Institutional Constraint: Serbia and Croatia in Hungary’s Electoral Context
Hungary’s elections are drawing attention across Europe, yet their significance is particularly pronounced for neighbouring states that are closely intertwined with Budapest within a network of regional political and economic interdependencies. For these countries, the stakes extend beyond the electoral outcome itself, encompassing the future direction of cooperation and the broader configuration of regional relations.
The War in Ukraine: Russia’s Spring False Start
Certain aspects of Russia’s war against Ukraine are predictable. One of them is the launch of new offensive operations in the spring. This is timed early enough for Vladimir Putin to be able to present some form of military success on Red Square on 9 May. This year, however, the situation does not appear promising for the Kremlin – at least for now. That said, this is not yet the beginning of a full-scale spring–summer offensive.
Crossroad between East and West. A retrospective analysis of the 2024/25 Moldavian situation
“The presidential elections and the referendum on the 20th of October will be the most important events after the declaration of independence – they will mark the Moldavians’ destiny for the next decades.” – The Ambassador of the Republic of Moldova to Romania, commenting on the 2024 Moldovan Referendum
Serbia under Pressure in the Energy Market: The State as a Crisis Buffer
Rising tensions in the Middle East and sharp increases in oil prices—exceeding $100 per barrel in recent weeks—have quickly translated into Serbia’s domestic policy response. The reaction of the authorities in Belgrade shows that in times of global instability, the state once again steps in as the primary instrument for stabilising both the economy and social conditions.
Western Balkans and the Escalation of Tensions in the Middle East
The escalation of tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran has quickly found political resonance in the Western Balkans. Reactions from governments across the region demonstrate how closely the region remains connected to broader geopolitical rivalries.
The War in the Persian Gulf: More Losses Than Gains for Russia
The scale of the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran caught Moscow off guard. The likelihood of major geopolitical shifts in the Persian Gulf has rarely appeared as high as it does today. While the Kremlin may reap limited short-term benefits from the escalation, the overall strategic balance is likely to be unfavorable for Russia.
The Phenomenon of the Forgotten State: Poland’s Distinct Position Within the Developed World
It has been more than 75 years since the Korean Peninsula was separated. For the last decades, the wish for normalizing the inter-Korean relations and the possibility of reunification have crossed the mind of some South Korean leaders. In the early 2000s, upon the incentive of normalizing their relations with North Korea, South Korea took inspiration from the German Ostpolitik in the development of the Sunshine Policy .
Non-surprise, Yet Wrapped in a Riddle? Results of Czech Parliamentary Elections 2025
At the beginning of October, the 9th general election to the lower house of the Czech Republic’s parliament (the Chamber of Deputies) took place. The election was a record in many respects – it had the highest voter turnout in this century (since 1998) and at the same time, in a nominal sense, the historically largest number of citizens participated.
Polish Innovations in Artificial Intelligence: A New Frontier in Global Technology
In the global landscape of technological advancement, Poland has quietly but decisively become one of the most dynamic centers for artificial intelligence (AI) innovation. Once perceived primarily as an outsourcing hub for software development, the country has transformed into a birthplace of original AI research, groundbreaking algorithms, and globally recognized startups.
Moscow’s Creeping Escalation: Hybrid Pressure on Poland and the Alliance
As many Polish, Ukrainian, and European experts warned, Russia would not stop at Ukraine. Give it an inch, and it will take a mile. Combined with Vladimir Putin’s confrontational style of negotiation and statecraft, that appetite has now spilled onto NATO territory. When a wave of Russian drones crossed into Poland from Belarusian airspace on the night of September 9-10, 2025, the Alliance’s eastern flank entered a new phase of the war.
The Piano and the White Eagle: Paderewski – Music for Freedom
“We fight for a Poland whole, united and independent… for a Motherland worthy of her faithful children.” Ignacy Jan Paderewski, inaugural address to the National Council of the Republic of Poland in exile, Paris, 23 January 1940.
Poland as a Model of Political Transformation for the Global South
Poland’s post-1989 transformation represents one of the most remarkable cases of non-violent political transition in twentieth-century history. Over three decades, Poland evolved from a marginal economy on Europe’s periphery into a stable democracy and a fully developed market system. This transformation was neither spontaneous nor externally imposed; it was the outcome of a deliberate political strategy that combined social mobilization, elite accountability, and a long-term vision of modernization.
Digital State: How Poland Became a European Leader in Digitalisation
Only three decades ago, Poland was stepping out of communism’s shadow, confronting economic challenges and a technology gap that would shape its digital journey. Following the fall of communism in 1989, Poland began a transformative journey, rapidly narrowing the gap with more developed Western countries. Today, the country has not only caught up with many of its Western peers but has also emerged as a pioneer in certain digital solutions.
Song and Dance Ensembles: Poland’s Cultural Ambassadors to the World
Poland has been steadily strengthening its global profile, presenting not only its economic achievements but also its urban renewal, expanding tourism infrastructure, thriving industries, and promising labor market. Less visible, yet equally defining, is the country’s cultural wealth – brought vividly to life on the world stage by its celebrated folklore folk.
Korean Unification From A European Perspective: Lessons From Poland And Europe Supporting Korea In Its Path Towards Unification
As part of the Korea Monitor project, Warsaw Institute – together with dozens of experts, researchers, and journalists from Europe and the Republic of Korea – engaged in discussions, analysis, and knowledge exchange to highlight the lessons Europe can share. By presenting best practices and accumulated experience, the report explores potential processes that could support the Korean people on their way toward unification.
The long way home: Insights from European integration for the Korean peninsula
Despite the significant cultural, historical, and geopolitical differences between Korea and Europe, the European integration experience provides a wealth of knowledge about how highly divided societies can come together. European nations’ journey from conflict to cooperation highlights the value of shared norms and the strength of institutions.
Demography and Unification Challenges: Population Decline as a Fundamental Factor in Korean Reunification Strategic Planning
As both South and North Korea’s populations are significantly declining, the demographic crisis is currently a primary issue in Korea’s unification discourse. While military, diplomatic, and huma nitarian issues have dominated strategic planning for a unified Korea, the demographic crisis neces sitates a more in-depth focus.
The lessons of the Ostpolitik and successive Sunshine Policies in modern inter-Korean relationships
It has been more than 75 years since the Korean Peninsula was separated. For the last decades, the wish for normalizing the inter-Korean relations and the possibility of reunification have crossed the mind of some South Korean leaders. In the early 2000s, upon the incentive of normalizing their relations with North Korea, South Korea took inspiration from the German Ostpolitik in the development of the Sunshine Policy .
Solidarity Beyond Borders: Poland’s Humanitarian and Development Efforts in Africa
When discussing Poland, we seldom consider its role in global development aid. We have grown accustomed to seeing our country only as its recipient. But throughout history, our solidarity has often gone beyond the borders of both our country and continent. Today, it resurfaces as a strategic lever in politics, diplomacy, and responsible governance, particularly within Africa.
Maintaining National Identity Through Division: What Korea May Learn from Poland
When political borders divide nations, national identity often becomes the invisible thread that holds the promise of reunification together, or on the contrary, the force that cements permanent separation.
Warsaw Institute
