Economics, geoeconomics, History, culture of Central and Eastern Europe
Polish, English, Czech, Russian, Ukrainian, French, Spanish
Mariusz Patey is a graduate of the Faculty of Physics at the University of Warsaw. A journalist specializing in the issues of the Intermarium economy and energy security. Former advisor to the Lubuskie Voivode, former member of supervisory boards of commercial companies related to transport, IT solutions for transport.
Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to formally annex four territories from Ukraine on Friday September 30. This might mark a turning point in the war––following the invasion and Putin’s announced troop mobilization. Putin has gone to war he will either win or lose. Once Russia illegally annexes four territories of Ukraine, there will no longer be possible for the Kremlin to sit at the negotiating table with Ukrainian officials. This will trigger further sanctions from the West. The suspected sabotage of Nord Stream and nuclear threats might––according to the Kremlin––scare off Ukraine and Western nations.
An increase in oil exports in September 2022 from Venezuela to China, Cuba, and Europe, among others, is expected to boost revenues for this Bolivarian country. This, however, does not improve Venezuela’s current social and economic situation. The 2020 sanctions imposed on this country by Western and Latin American countries have limited Venezuelan oil exports to global oil trade markets. The public receives food rations from the state, and the consumer market is still constrained due to the enforced sanctions.
Russian-installed officials in four occupied regions of Ukraine reported huge majorities of votes in favor of joining Russia––ranging between 87 and 99 percent. Western countries will refuse to recognize the rigged vote tally. Despite that, Russia is likely to grab these eastern regions of Ukraine that together make up about 15 percent of Ukrainian territory.
What Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said back in New York corroborates that the Russian snap decision to illegally grab Ukrainian territories was made to expand its nuclear blackmail. Russia has repeatedly waved the threat of using nuclear force to have the upper hand in its war in Ukraine. This is why the Kremlin decided to boost its credibility.
The Putin-Xi meeting at a regional security gathering in Uzbekistan has seen a reinforced Chinese stance toward Russia. It is Russia’s Putin that seeks Chinese support amid a lingering war in Ukraine and painful Western sanctions. At the summit of the Shangai Cooperation Organization, the Chinese leader symbolically settled Moscow’s consent to influence Central Asia––not only economically.
Russia is making fortune from the gas crisis it has sparked off. Russian gas giant Gazprom has scored brilliantly in the first six months of this year despite a decline in output and exports. The company has thus made an unprecedented decision to pay out a six-month dividend for 2022––interestingly, it did not pay out dividends for 2021.
The classified seventh paragraph of the decree of Vladimir Putin contains information on the mobilization volume, which now remains unknown. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made reference to up to 300,000 people being mobilized in phases but some news outlets reported that the real target is four times as many. Contrary to what Putin said, the military call-up is not partial, but widespread, while it is state authorities that decide who is summoned.
Polish pilots have earned a special place in British history. Formed on August 2, 1940, the 303rd Tadeusz Kościuszko Warsaw Fighter Squadron showed its exceptional efficiency and bravery during the Battle of Britain. With its heroism, No. 303 Squadron has proven to live up to the deeds of its great patron, Tadeusz Kościuszko.
The results of these “referenda” are known well in advance. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in a few days. This operation is aimed at mobilizing Putin’s supporters in Russia and stoking fears of nuclear attacks if Ukrainian forces liberate the whole regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
With the adoption of its Strategic Concept of 2022 in July 2022 in Madrid, Spain, NATO introduced its new action plan under its 2030 Agenda. However, the reality across the world presents enhanced challenges in today’s critical security landscape, suggesting that written commitments require effective actions.