RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 2/2020

Contents
The U.S. Response to War on Ukraine Needs Work

The U.S. Response to War on Ukraine Needs Work

Since Russia launched its most recent invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the United States and NATO have provided political, military, economic, and other forms of aid and support to Ukraine. While well-intentioned, Washington could improve the types, quantity, and velocity of the aid it provides to Kyiv.

2022 French Presidential Election

2022 French Presidential Election

The French presidential election was fundamental to the world order. The Western European power boasts the EU’s biggest army, the world’s largest exclusive economic zone, and nuclear arsenal while its troops are deployed to five continents. So far France has made modest efforts to contain Russia’s imperialist policy while senior French officials often praised cordial ties with the authorities in Moscow. Nevertheless, the Western European country has become a pillar of security for Central and Eastern European countries, including Poland, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States

Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States

The development of the situation and the state of security in the Indo-Pacific is the main determinant of the future of the world and the distribution of power between two competing superpowers. This research paper covers the United States’ position in Indo-Pacific waters, its response to the growing interference of the People’s Republic of China, and Australia’s stabilizing role in the region. The text presents the genesis of the presence of the American Navy in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the causes and effects of the increased activity of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in the South China Sea region. The study also indicates the response of the anti-Chinese alliance countries in this region, among which the expansion of the field of allied cooperation and the militarily strengthened Australia are to play a key role.

The Warsaw Institute stands united with Ukraine

The Warsaw Institute stands united with Ukraine

The Warsaw Institute stands in solidarity with Ukraine, which was attacked by the regime of Vladimir Putin. As an organization, we condemn any signs of escalation of the conflict on the part of the Russian Federation and support the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state.

Racial conflicts created by the Russian security authorities in the USA

Racial conflicts created by the Russian security authorities in the USA

In an interview with Russian state-run broadcaster Rossiya-1 on October 7, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of the situation before the November presidential election in the United States, saying he agreed with some of the liberal and left-wing values of the Democratic Party. The Russian leader said the Soviet Union––just like Democrats in the U.S.––backed the ethnic African American population in their fight for fundamental rights since the 1930s when the Communist International (Comintern) considered imperialism and capitalism a common enemy of both White and Black workers. Putin got nostalgic about the time when the Soviet Union would display portraits of Angela Davis, a Black Communist member and an activist committed to African American rights movement

The Situation on the Poland-Belarus Border: Background, Geopolitics, Narratives

The Situation on the Poland-Belarus Border: Background, Geopolitics, Narratives

What is now taking place on the Poland-Belarus border was triggered by a political crisis in Belarus that has unfolded since August 2020. Back then, Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, was declared winner of a presidential election that opponents and the West said had been rigged.

Kosovo in foreign policies of Poland and Hungary

Kosovo in foreign policies of Poland and Hungary

Poland and Hungary are two Central European states, who thanks to their similar geopolitical positions and historic experiences have approximately the same vision about several matters from security policy, through economy to European politics. One of these are the Western Balkan policies and within that the recognition and support of the statehood of Kosovo. Or is it?

U.S.-China Trade War: Origins, Timeline and Consequences

U.S.-China Trade War: Origins, Timeline and Consequences

The first version of this report was published in early April 2020, during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic and after the „phase one“ deal was signed. The situation worldwide and U.S.-China ties have both gained momentum since the report was first released, to which added up the intense presidential campaign in the United States and the worsening recession across the globe.

Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and 2020 as an Attempt to Implement a Revolution-like Information Warfare Scheme

Russian Interference in the U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and 2020 as an Attempt to Implement a Revolution-like Information Warfare Scheme

Information warfare is tantamount to active measures. While adapting Western theories and terminology, Russians make assumptions aligned with their domestic needs. The whole procedure is designed to conceal methods and tools Soviet spy agencies had brushed up for decades, as confirmed by the authors of the study drafted under the auspices of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation.

Soviet Means for Intervening in Election Campaign and Vote in the United States During the Cold War

Soviet Means for Intervening in Election Campaign and Vote in the United States During the Cold War

Elections are when candidates compete with each other and, in consequence, as some win power, others lose it and turn into opposition. Delegating power in this manner exerts a direct influence on state policy both at home and abroad. Thus through foreign electoral interventions, it is possible to win a real influence on the policy of countries, a tool for advancing geopolitical interests of a third state.

Witold Pilecki – a Flawless Hero

Witold Pilecki – a Flawless Hero

On the 120th anniversary of Witold Pilecki’s birth and the 73rd anniversary of his martyr’s death, it is vital to recall one of the most heroic and outstanding soldiers of the Polish armed underground resistance movement during World War II.

Four Challenges For NATO 2030

Four Challenges For NATO 2030

On the verge of the third decade of the twenty-first century and after many years of being associated with operations abroad, the North Atlantic Alliance is returning to its roots by performing missions to ensure collective defense. What remains the chief adversary of NATO is Russia, but the military bloc is also aware of the China challenge.

Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry

Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry

The year 2020 brought a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flare-up in the fighting between the Azerbaijani military and ethnic Armenian forces of the breakaway region resulted in a peace deal that humiliated Armenia that had to return 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as well as all transit routes from the disputed enclave to Armenia.

Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

Where are the Polish-German relations heading?

The Polish-German relations at the turn of 2020-2021, although marked by a difficult history, sometimes even by mutual misunderstanding, are relatively correct now. This is thanks to good personal relations between Polish and German politicians (presidents and heads of government) and very good economic relations. Germany is a key trade partner for Poland.

Welcome to Cyberwar

Welcome to Cyberwar

Sponsored by the KGB, the world’s first ever cyber operation Cuckoo’s Egg took place in 1986 – as commissioned by the Soviet services. Two decades later, hacks became an inherent tool in a repertoire used by the conflicting states. While writing his famous phrase “Welcome to cyberwar” in September 2010, Ralph Langner began a brand-new era of armed conflict.

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

From the History of the Belarusian Revolution

Mass protests following the rigged presidential election turned out to be the largest opposition movement against the authorities in the history of independent Belarus. Although Alexander Lukashenko continues to hold the reins of government, he lost legitimization and the majority of Belarusians are against him.

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

Baltic States Versus Russian Hybrid Threats

The threat from Russia’s foreign and security policy relying upon the strategic concept of rebuilding the sphere of influence in the countries of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or USSR, is what connects internal security of the Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

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