RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 6/2020

Contents
Coronavirus in Russia: Putin Has Ratings Problem

Coronavirus in Russia: Putin Has Ratings Problem

The fall in Vladimir Putin’s popularity ratings is bucking the trend. The pandemic and much-criticized state policies, including the president’s self-isolation from Russian society, have created a less comfortable environment for the Kremlin while only speeding up some alarming shifts.

Russia’s Plan For Libya: Diplomatic Solutions Instead of Hired Guns

Russia’s Plan For Libya: Diplomatic Solutions Instead of Hired Guns

Following a series of setbacks for Russian-backed military commander Khalifa Haftar, there comes a severe threat of the collapse of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Thus, the Kremlin is seeking to bolster efforts towards compliance with Russian-Turkish bilateral agreements on a ceasefire in Libya.

“The Next Chernobyl”: Giant Diesel Spill in Siberia’s Norilsk

“The Next Chernobyl”: Giant Diesel Spill in Siberia’s Norilsk

An oil leak released diesel into the Arctic Ocean as officials were slow to respond, both due to human error. A whole array of mistakes was made by both local senior officials and the owner of the thermoelectric power plant that let diesel oil escape in the water bodies. Many say the oil spill was the worst such accident ever in the Arctic region.

Putin For Life? Kremlin Wants Nation Support Now

Putin For Life? Kremlin Wants Nation Support Now

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a referendum on constitutional changes that would allow him to stay in office past his current term will be held on July 1, or basically throughout the whole last week of June. With a blend of the Victory Day parade and plausible vote-rigging tools, the Kremlin seeks to hit both an adequate turnout vote and a much-desired result.

The Arctic Icebreaker: Russia’s Security Policy in the Far North

The Arctic Icebreaker: Russia’s Security Policy in the Far North

Whilst the Arctic is a geographical zone that could be labelled as “an area of potential competition between global superpowers”, this alone does not provide full insight into what is really taking place there. One could notice that solely Russia sees it as a key priority while comparing potentials of some of the region’s players, as well as the Arctic’s place on their respective political agendas.

China-U.S. Trade War: Origins, Course and Consequences

China-U.S. Trade War: Origins, Course and Consequences

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has fanned out around the globe since early 2020, has drastically reshaped world policies. Amidst a fast unraveling humanitarian crisis and a massive blow to the global economy, the U.S.-China trade war is now of secondary concern. Yet, it is a result of structural geopolitical rivalries and will strike even more forcefully after the ongoing crisis is over.

The Collapse of the INF Treaty and the US-China Rivalry

The Collapse of the INF Treaty and the US-China Rivalry

Russia’s noncompliance with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, was the top reason for Donald Trump’s administration to pull out of the deal. Nonetheless, the collapse of the agreement has influenced not only the situation in Europe but also in Asia and the Pacific.

New Gas Pipeline Geopolitics in Central and Eastern Europe

New Gas Pipeline Geopolitics in Central and Eastern Europe

The current gas pipeline system in Central and Eastern Europe started to be built in the 1960s. Apart from commercial purposes, it was intended to make the countries of the Eastern Bloc reliant on energy supplies from the Soviet Union. Just like it was asserted in the Falin-Kvitsinsky doctrine, a Moscow-devised strategy that endeavored to substitute military influence with economic pressure.

Dilemmas of Chinese Presence in Central and Eastern Europe

Dilemmas of Chinese Presence in Central and Eastern Europe

Chinese presence in Central and Eastern Europe is part of the country’s broader policy toward the whole continent while fitting into Beijing’s possibilities to exert influence on what so far has referred to as the Western world.

Romanian Presidential Vote: Changes or No Change At All?

Romanian Presidential Vote: Changes or No Change At All?

The past six months brought a few twists and turns in Romanian politics. Incidents like the Social Democratic Party’s (PSD) tied vote in the European elections, a jail sentence for a former leader of this post-communist party, followed by the fall of the cabinet and the establishment of the interim government unleashed what could be referred to as a crisis within the group’s ranks.

Sweden Faces the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea

Sweden Faces the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea

By beefing up its military presence in the exclave of Kaliningrad, flying provocative air patrols and by building next legs of the Nord Stream energy pipeline, Russia undermines the security of other countries in the Baltic region. Also, Moscow could take advantage of the pipeline’s energy infrastructure to take subversive actions in the Baltic Sea.

Who Will Bear the Banner of the 5G Revolution?

Who Will Bear the Banner of the 5G Revolution?

This simultaneously provides a range of never-before-seen opportunities and poses a threat to security, morphing into an issue that has ignited political rows around the world.

Poland’s 2019 Parliamentary Election

Poland’s 2019 Parliamentary Election

Held on October 13, 2019, Poland’s general election is first and foremost a success of democracy, as exemplified by crowds rushing to polling stations and a massive rise in voter turnout.

Russia in Africa: Weapons, Mercenaries, Spin Doctors.

Russia in Africa: Weapons, Mercenaries, Spin Doctors.

The Kremlin eyes the African continent as yet another arena of a massive clash with the West, as it did under the Cold War reality. But their competition has now been of a rather practical and economic nature, pushing ideologies somewhere to the margin. Also, Moscow has enjoyed the positive image it had retained in Africa back from the Soviet times.

What’s Next For Turkey’s NATO Membership After S-400 Purchase?

What’s Next For Turkey’s NATO Membership After S-400 Purchase?

Turkey has sealed a military deal with Russia, receiving the first parts of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems in the summer of 2019. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not bow to pressure from the United States, and Ankara’s determination to acquire Russian-built weaponry will enrage both Washington and its NATO peers.

Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Exchange: Zelensky Caught Into Russian Trap

Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Exchange: Zelensky Caught Into Russian Trap

An actual prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia is a PR success of Ukraine’s incumbent leader Volodymyr Zelensky, yet it is his Russian counterpart who won politically. The negotiating process of the prisoner exchange, how it was performed and the names of those who were meant to be freed eventually shed a negative spotlight on Ukraine.

Summing up 10 Years of the Eastern Partnership

Summing up 10 Years of the Eastern Partnership

May 2019 marked ten years since the Eastern Partnership was launched as a platform for a mutual dialogue between the European Union and its Eastern neighbors while providing a roadmap for comprehensive actions to be undertaken. Included as part of the forum are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

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