Russia Monitor Monthly 4/23
Content
Nagorno-Karabakh as Part of Geopolitical Rivalry
The year 2020 brought a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The flare-up in the fighting between the Azerbaijani military and ethnic Armenian forces of the breakaway region resulted in a peace deal that humiliated Armenia that had to return 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as well as all transit routes from the disputed enclave to Armenia.
Russia’s Intelligence Service Fuels Georgian Turmoil
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, known by its Russian acronym SVR, delivered an official message about the internal affairs of a third country. “In Washington, dissatisfaction is growing with the actions of the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is declining to submissively carry out American demands,” according to the statement published on the SVR website.
China’s Parliament is Debating on the Future of the Economy
March 5, 2021, marked the opening of the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which will approve the Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025 on March 11. In the annual report, Premier Li Keqiang set a modest growth target of 6% and a budget deficit of 3.2%.
Warsaw Institute’s expert interview for Poland In
The difficult situation of the Belarusian opposition after last year’s presidential elections and the lack of trust in the regime among Belarusian society were discussed in an interview with the Warsaw Institute’s expert Jakub Lachert for Poland In.
Belarus Begins Shipping Fuels Through Russian Ports
This is another sign of tightened cooperation between Belarus and Russia, or the higher level of Minsk’s reliance on Moscow. Alexander Lukashenko began shipping his country’s top export commodity, or oil products, through Russian ports after having withdrawn from the more profitable ports in the Baltic States, notably in Lithuania.
Russia Pleased with OPEC+ Decision
Another clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the latest meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries again ended up with a compromise. Riyadh managed to defend its stance that there should be no risk to boost oil output despite the increase in global oil demand – as this may trigger a decline in crude price.
Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial – how did it happen?
On February 13, Donald Trump became the only US President in history to be impeached twice. However, no precedent was established – the former US president was acquitted. This article will answer the following questions: what is impeachment, what is its genesis, which presidents have been impeached in the past, and what led to the second impeachment.
17+1 Summit: The Difficult Future of the Initiative
A several-hour long virtual summit of the Heads of States of the 17+1 format members, i.e., the Central and Eastern European Countries and China, took place on February 9, 2021. For the first time in the history of the initiative, China was represented by the President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Xi Jinping. It was another opportunity for Beijing to make its presence in the region known.
The Nord Stream 2 and energy security in Central Europe
“We support the approach that does not aim at sanctioning anyone but rather to level the playing field across energy suppliers in Europe,” Tomasz Kijewski, President of the Warsaw Institute tells CEENERGYNEWS, adding that true opposition to Nord Stream 2 is not about anti-Russian policy but it is a fight for fairness and competition on the European energy market.
A Future FSB Director? Putin Makes Personnel Decision
After a months-long hiatus, General Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), finally has the main deputy. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree appointing Colonel-General Sergey Korolev for the post of the first deputy director of the FSB.
Austrian Ex-Foreign Minister Gets Nomination for Russia’s Rosneft
Austria’s former foreign minister Karin Kneissl – as another European official – has been chosen for a seat on oil giant Rosneft’s board of directors. In August 2018, the Austrian politician made headlines when she invited Putin to her wedding.
Polish President Speaks with Xi Jinping
On Monday, March 1, 2021, the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda held a telephone conversation with the President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Xi Jinping. The main topics of the talk included economic issues and efforts to fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
Event Summary: Transatlantic Relations in the Biden Era
On 2 March 2021, Warsaw Institute think-tank co-hosted an online event with the American Affairs Journal. The discussion focussed on updating the stance of Poland, Europe, and the United States on their prospects for political and economic cooperation.
A Hero to Poles and Americans Alike
February 4 marked the 275th anniversary of the birth of Tadeusz Kościuszko – an outstanding military commander, patriot, and modern man, a hero to Poles and Americans alike. Tadeusz Kościuszko attached great importance to the notions such as freedom, tolerance, justice, and republicanism. Thomas Jefferson called him “the purest son of liberty.”
China and the “Malacca Dilemma”
The Strait of Malacca is the shortest sea route between the Middle East and East Asia, helping to reduce the time and cost of transportation among Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Its strategic location makes it a vital waterway for hydrocarbon, container and bulk cargo shipment.
Saudi Arabia and Russia Head for Another Clash on OPEC+ Oil Cuts
Saudi Arabia says an increase in oil output should be addressed cautiously despite a recovery in global oil prices. Officials in Riyadh will keep in force the oil cuts. Moscow, on the other hand, is indicating that it still wants to proceed with a supply increase.
Russia’s Audit Chamber Confirms Large Decline in Oil and Gas Budget Revenues
The Audit Chamber, Russia’s government spending watchdog, said the country saw a massive drop in budget revenues from selling oil and gas. In 2020, these were just a fraction of the federal budget while a relatively modest increase in non-related revenues failed to make up for this loss.
What Role for Russia in Armenian Turmoil?
The General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces has demanded the ouster of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a move that exacerbated the political turmoil the country had plunged into after the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan. Thousands of opposition protesters take to the streets of Yerevan every day. However, Pashinyan is reluctant to step down.
“Strategic Partnership:” New Kyrgyz President Visits Russia
Russia as the first destination for new Kyrgyz president Sadyr Japarov was no surprise. The new leader of the Central Asian country had a mission to reassure his Moscow partners that the latest unrest – and lingering plans to amend the constitution to give more powers to the president – would not affect Russian political interests in Kyrgyzstan.
Gazprom Reappoints Alexey Miller for Further Five Years
There was again no truth in the rumor that the long-serving CEO of Gazprom was about to quit the Russian gas giant. The board of directors of Gazprom has reappointed Alexey Miller as the head of the group for a new five-year term. If Miller completes his tenure, he will be the longest-serving chief executive of Russian large state-run companies, with twenty-five years at the helm.
Warsaw Institute
