Russia Monitor Monthly 12/22

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The U.S. Immigration Crisis Dominates a Domestic Political Debate

The U.S. Immigration Crisis Dominates a Domestic Political Debate

In recent months, rapidly growing numbers of migrant has become one of the major topics of the U.S. domestic public debate. The problem is particularly acute in so-called sanctuary cities, among which New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles stand out. The upcoming national election in 2024 and the rise of public concern indicate the slow shift in the democratic approach towards immigrants.

U.S. Use G20 Summit in New Delhi to Strengthen Partnership with Emerging Markets Without China

U.S. Use G20 Summit in New Delhi to Strengthen Partnership with Emerging Markets Without China

The G20 summit in Indi marked the early beginning of September. The U.S. President Joe Biden, along with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman, and Japan’s Fumio Kishida, gathered in New Delhi for the culmination point of the G20 summit. The summit distincted the Chinese leader -Xi Jinping’s- absence.

Georgia’s Pro-Russian Authorities Accuse Ukraine of Plotting a Coup

Georgia’s Pro-Russian Authorities Accuse Ukraine of Plotting a Coup

Georgia has sided with Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. State authorities obstructed Georgian volunteers in Ukraine and criticized Ukrainian support for the imprisoned former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili. In addition, Georgia boosted trade ties with Russia while opening borders to Russian citizens. State authorities also seek to begin impeachment proceedings against the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili. A story of an alleged coup masterminded by Ukrainian sources to overthrow the Georgian government is also in line with this narrative.

As Zelensky Meets Sudan’s Burhan, Is Ukraine Present in Sudan?

As Zelensky Meets Sudan’s Burhan, Is Ukraine Present in Sudan?

Is the enemy of my enemy one’s friend? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has held an unscheduled meeting with a senior official from Sudan during a technical stopover in Ireland. The two officials discussed the export of grain and perhaps also security cooperation. Recently reports have alleged that Ukrainian special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes and a ground operation directed against a Russian-backed militia in Sudan. Ukraine is allegedly providing support for Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese military junta.

Russia, Moldova Involved in Standoff over Gas Supplies

Russia, Moldova Involved in Standoff over Gas Supplies

Moldova’s energy minister says the government will propose that Moldovagaz, a subsidiary of Gazprom, pay the Russian gas giant $8.6 million to settle a debt that Gazprom says is more than $700 million. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that the audit had disproved Gazprom’s claim that the Moldovan government owes it hundreds of millions of dollars.

As OPEC+ Strategy Thrives, Russia Has Money to Wage War

As OPEC+ Strategy Thrives, Russia Has Money to Wage War

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has gained about 30 percent in late Q3 this year. The biggest beneficiary is Russia while Saudi Arabia––by drastically curbing its crude output––has also played its part. The cartel is likely to impose further curbs as the strategy of reducing output and releasing less crude to the market has proved successful. The question is how long Riyadh will continue such a policy that might result in a gradual loss of Asian markets in favor of cheaper Russian oil.

Ukraine Advances Towards Tokmak, Russia Fails Counterattacks Near Bakhmut

Ukraine Advances Towards Tokmak, Russia Fails Counterattacks Near Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces carried out offensive operations towards Melitopol and repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut in the second half of September. For weeks, in the northernmost sector of the frontline, Russia has ramped up its attacks on Kupyansk, trying to win back a city, although without any success. With the approach of fall and winter expected to make fighting more complicated, Ukrainian forces seek to score some bigger success and capture the settlement of Tokmak, considered a strategic city on the approach towards Zaporizhzhia.

Russia’s Problem with Wagner Group in Africa

Russia’s Problem with Wagner Group in Africa

It is a tough task to replace the Wagner Group in Africa where it has sent numerous mercenary deployments. Some local military juntas trust Wagner mercenaries and refuse their withdrawal as they are struggling to consolidate a grip on power. Moscow has sought to persuade multiple African countries, including Libya, Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, though with no result. A game-changer could be Wagner’s withdrawal from Syria where a major communications point between Russia and Africa has been lost.

Disinformation as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare at the Polish-Belarusian Border

Disinformation as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare at the Polish-Belarusian Border

The Belarusian or Eastern migration and border crisis is one of the biggest hybrid conflicts Central Europe has faced in the 21st century. Although the conflict has faded in the lights of the war in Ukraine since 2022, it remains a live crisis, with its unique challenges, and poses a constant security threat to the states involved and to the European Union as a whole.

Russia Again Hits Ukrainian Energy Facilities

Russia Again Hits Ukrainian Energy Facilities

As winter is coming, Russia once again targets Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure to wreak havoc across the country. The government in Kyiv says its air defense has become even more complex and experienced to repel further attacks.

Wagner Fighters Return to Ukraine, Perhaps As Part of Russia’s National Guard

Wagner Fighters Return to Ukraine, Perhaps As Part of Russia’s National Guard

Thousands of former Wagner Group fighters are a valuable asset that the Kremlin, involved in a bloody war in Ukraine, will never give up. The process of recruiting former members of the Wagner Group for MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs) or the regular army seems to make little progress. Hence, the Kremlin has decided to stage discussions regarding the potential inclusion of Wagner units within the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia).

China Extends iPhone Ban for Local Administration Employees

China Extends iPhone Ban for Local Administration Employees

In the latest step, China has successfully extended its curbs on iPhones to local government workers and state-owned companies following central government employees. Bejign’s move weighed heavily on Wall Street stock indexes, with Apple shares falling.

Azerbaijan-Georgia Partnership as a Key for EU’s Long-term Energy Security

Azerbaijan-Georgia Partnership as a Key for EU’s Long-term Energy Security

Azerbaijan and Georgia are two neighboring countries of the South Caucasus and strategic allies. The Caspian Sea region is rich in oil and natural gas resources, and Azerbaijan’s major export routes are connected to Western energy markets via Georgia and Turkiye. Moreover, these countries support connectivity in the region, which is an important link between Central Asia, the Caspian region and Europe. To this end, both Azerbaijan and Georgia have also strategic partnerships with Ankara.

How to Address the EU Migration Crisis?

How to Address the EU Migration Crisis?

In 2021, around 2.3 million undocumented migrants from Asia and Africa landed in Europe. It was the first serious renewal of migration crisis since 2015. In 2022 and 2023, even more migrants arrived. Consequently, EU institutions and nations took action to break the stalemate over unregulated migrant flows and the bloc’s migration policy as such.

Russian Disinformation about Ukrainian Refugees in Poland

Russian Disinformation about Ukrainian Refugees in Poland

Disinformation is a tool commonly used by Russia to achieve the strategic goals of foreign policy. Russian disinformation campaigns seek to reach many states, including Poland. Russian propaganda outlets spread a flurry of fake news concerning many topics, notably Ukrainian refugees who settled in Poland shortly after Moscow invaded Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden Visits Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden Visits Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden expressed desire to elevate Vietnam to a strategic partner and strengthen tech ties between the two states. The president will arrive in Hanoi on September 10 to meet with General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong on the one-day visit to the Vietnamese capital after attending the annual Group of 20 leaders’ summit in India.

A Wavering Political Landscape in Spain

A Wavering Political Landscape in Spain

With Spain holding the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until December 2023, the next coalition government may set the tone for decisive topics from climate policy to migration at the European level.

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