Russia Monitor Monthly 04/2022
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Prospects For Ukraine Joining NATO Are Dim
Kyiv is insisting on the set of peace proposals it submitted in late March in Turkey. The proposals mean that Ukraine would not host any military bases in exchange for security guarantees from most countries, including Russia. But recent occurrings may make Kyiv change its position.
No Armored Battle In Ukraine’s Donbas And On Southern Front
The much-debated battle of Donbas unfolds differently than some expected. Vladimir Putin cannot announce the Russian seizure of the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk on May 9. Perhaps Russian forces will not be able to seize the very last Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol, either. They are seeking to attain some goals in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia. A Russian invasion of Odesa or Kryvyi Rih is unlikely to succeed.
Russia Cuts Off Gas To Poland, Bulgaria
Russia’s Gazprom cut Poland and Bulgaria off from its gas for refusing to pay in roubles, which was a purely political move. Moscow somehow had to respond to the fact that European clients had rejected Vladimir Putin’s demand that foreign purchasers of Russian gas pay in the Russian currency. It was the Kremlin’s tit-for-tat move after the West imposed a batch of sanctions that crippled the Russian currency. It was a brazen demand as Putin’s demand to pay in roubles was a breach of contract. Once it is met, EU recipients would violate the sanctions against Russia. Putin thus incites some discrepancies within the EU while seeking to display the bloc’s weakness at the time of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Germany Ready To Confiscate Rosneft Oil Assets
The biggest Russian oil company is unable to award a tender to sell oil while Germany has signaled a change of control at the country’s Schwedt oil refinery that is run by Rosneft. In a major shift in its stance, Germany says it is prepared to ditch Russian oil supplies. Its cooperation with Poland could be vital in this context.
Is India Planning To Invest In Russian Energy Despite Economic And Political Risk?
As the West shuns Moscow, India has taken up a Russian offer to buy crude oil at a discount. However, it is struggling to find shipping options. This may be a crucial factor for Indian companies that consider purchasing more stakes in Russian energy firms and their oil and gas ventures.
EU Prepares To Hit Russian Oil Exports
Russia’s oil production is on track to drop by 17 percent this year as Western sanctions and departing foreign oil companies complicate extraction, the Russian finance ministry said in a statement. The first quarter of this year was beneficial to Russian oil firms, though.
Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: Fears Of Attack On Odessa
As Russia stepped up its artillery and rocket attacks on cities in southern Ukraine and massed its forces, many reports are that Russian forces are seeking to take Odesa. At the same time, Moscow could order an offensive along the right flank by striking an area stretching from Zaporizhia to Kryvyi Rih.
Tensions Surge In Moldova’s Breakaway Region Of Transnistria
A Russian plan to set up a special payment facility to pay for gas in roubles was a game that the Kremlin played with Western countries that seek to reduce their gas imports from Russia. EU nations did not bow to Russian pressure though Moscow has forced Armenia, its ally, into paying for gas in roubles to show that the new payment system is in force. Although Russia said it would start forcing “unfriendly countries” to pay for their natural gas supplies in roubles, Armenia is certainly not one.
The Fiasco Of “Rouble Blackmail” Despite Armenian Example
A Russian plan to set up a special payment facility to pay for gas in roubles was a game that the Kremlin played with Western countries that seek to reduce their gas imports from Russia. EU nations did not bow to Russian pressure though Moscow has forced Armenia, its ally, into paying for gas in roubles to show that the new payment system is in force. Although Russia said it would start forcing “unfriendly countries” to pay for their natural gas supplies in roubles, Armenia is certainly not one.
Russia’s Lukoil Chief Alekperov Resigns
Russian billionaire Vagit Alekperov has resigned as CEO of Lukoil. The oil tycoon joined a handful of Russian business leaders that have departed their firms following the invasion of Ukraine and possible personnel reshuffles in Putin’s Russia. Those who retire are long-serving senior officials, giving way to young technocrats who owe their careers to Vladimir Putin.
Japanese Firms Are Unlikely To Exit Sakhalin-2 Project
Energy giant Shell says it will exit all Russian operations, including the Sakhalin-2 LNG project in the Russian Far East. According to some reports, Shell is in talks with some Chinese companies to sell its stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas project in Russia. Two Japanese firms that hold shares in the project say they will not exit the venture despite Tokyo’s harsh crackdown on Moscow following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Will Russia Create New “People’s Republic” In Kherson?
According to the Ukrainian intelligence agency, Russia is planning to proclaim what is known as a “people’s republic” in the Moscow-occupied southern Ukrainian region of Kherson. No details are known about how far it will stretch. It will probably cover the whole area of the Russian-occupied Kherson region and the southern bit of the Zaporizhia region. The name of the “republic” is not incidental––Kherson is the region’s major city to fall to Russian forces after their February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
A Wave of Mystery Suicides of Russian Gazprom Executives
Four recent suicides of high-profile Russian gas industry executives seem somewhat suspicious. One case is believed to have been what is known as an extended suicide. Gazprom’s security agency is investigating into all deaths. At least two of the executives knew a lot about the company’s financial flow.
Ukraine-Russia War: Ukraine Is Killing More Russian Generals
The Russian military is reluctant to start an offensive in Donbas because its senior officers are aware of the heavy losses they might suffer, according to the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence agency. Indeed, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is featured with an unexpected death tally of senior Russian military personnel, including dozens of colonels, hundreds of junior officers, and eight generals––of whom three commanders.
Russia’s Offensive On Donbas Has Begun
The Russian military command launched an operation in Ukraine’s Donbas while not waiting for the fall of Mariupol. The aggressor’s top mission is to smash the best-equipped Ukrainian units and seize at least the whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which would be what the Kremlin meant while recognizing the so-called “people’s republics” in Donbas.
Ukraine’s SBU Detains Putin Ally Viktor Medvedchuk
Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk has for years been the number one figure in the pro-Russian political wing in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities had already charged Medvedchuk with treason last year and placed him under house arrest. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the mogul escaped but was detained by Ukrainian counterintelligence officers. He must know a lot about Russian plans of a military invasion of Ukraine. But will he be willing to cooperate? One is certain: by capturing Medvedchuk, Ukrainian operatives dealt a blow to Russia, Putin, and the FSB.
Russia Is Seeking To Encircle Ukraine’s Donbas
Ukraine, the United States, and NATO say that Russia is nearing a significant new offensive in the eastern Donbas region. Russia regrouped troops that failed to seize Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, or Kyiv––the country’s capital. Now it shifts its offensive east to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbas. In addition to capturing the whole regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russians are seeking to break Ukrainian morale. Ukrainian forces stationed in the Donbas are the best trained and equipped units.
”Besieged Fortress:” Polls Show Russians Support Putin And War In Ukraine
Western sanctions that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not compromise Vladimir Putin’s popularity rating. Although the Russian population is not in the same euphoric mood as after Crimea was annexed in 2014, these two events share some features. Polling agency results have pointed to a surge of support for Putin, including what he referred to as a “special military operation” in Ukraine. But among some Western experts, the poll shows a Russian fear of speaking frankly and honestly to pollsters, even those run independently. Russian researchers––also those very critical of Putin’s actions––say that the uptick in the president’s popularity is what could be labeled a defense strategy to an alleged attack from the outside, which is the Kremlin’s official narrative.
Putin’s Appetite For Rapid Success: If Not Donbas, Then Mariupol
Russian forces are slowly regrouping to double down on their attacks in Ukraine’s Donbas despite heavy losses they had sustained in the country’s north and some personnel shortages. But these issues are unlikely to make Moscow scrap its plan to attack southeastern Ukraine. Faced with a total failure, Russia can only make an effort to seize a portion of Ukrainian territory and then give its go-ahead for ceasefire and talks before the conflict is frozen.
“Black Tuesday” For Russian Intelligence As European Countries Expel More Russian “Diplomats”
It was just on April 5 that Western countries ejected a total of 150 Russian diplomatic staff members. Recent days saw the mass expulsion of Russian “diplomats”––most of whom are intelligence officers––from Western states after Russian war crimes had been revealed in Bucha, Ukraine. Other European nations began to expel Russian operatives just after the war broke out. Since February 24, around 400 Russian diplomats have been asked to leave their postings. And more expulsions will follow.
Warsaw Institute
