RUSSIA MONITOR MONTHLY 04/2021
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Will Russian Government Limit Export of Petrol Amid Growth in Prices?
People in Russia have to spend more on petrol for a couple of months now. State authorities believe this comes from the policy of petrol-producing companies that prefer selling their commodities abroad to leaving them on the domestic market. The government is considering some measures to restrict the export of petrol, but its market-controlling attempts may prove little helpful.
Russia’s Rosneft Plans Lower Dividends Than Last Year
Russia’s biggest oil company Rosneft is planning to spend 50 percent of its 2020 net profit on dividends. In this way, shareholders will have their payout five times lower than the year before. The general shareholders meeting of Rosneft will take place on June 1, 2021, in absentia.
Gazprom Speeds Up Gasification Scheme
Throughout 2021 Russia’s gas giant Gazprom is planning to spend twice as much to gasify Russian regions as the year before. The company has hurried up to connect customers across the country to the gas grid at the request of Vladimir Putin. Last year the Russian president declared this as one of the top priorities of the state’s social policy.
Russia Sets the Stage for Putin-Biden Meeting
Senior Russian officials are confirming efforts to prepare the Putin-Biden meeting while at the same time threatening to respond to what they name as Washington’s additional “unfriendly steps.” However, the Kremlin seems very keen on the meeting, which explains its relatively moderate reaction to a fresh batch of U.S. sanctions and perhaps also the decision to pull out some troops from its border with Ukraine.
Yes to Nord Stream 2, No to Sanctions: Germany Takes a Course on Russia
As Alexey Navalny ended his hunger strike while Russia pulled back its troops from the border with Ukraine, this was enough for Berlin to redisplay its Moscow-friendly policy. Germany’s top officials openly say that Nord Stream 2 should be completed while the country’s foreign minister criticized those in the West who ask for a more resolute stance on the Kremlin.
Zeman Favors Moscow Amid GRU Sabotage in the Czech Republic
Only after a week did Czech President Milos Zeman speak to the nation to comment on some reports that the government believed the Russian military intelligence agency had orchestrated the arms depot explosion in Vrbetice in 2014. Zeman, who has often expressed his pro-Russian views and hostility to his country’s counterintelligence service, did Moscow a service with what he announced, sparking a reaction from the state government. The Czech interior minister said that his country is probing into the Vrbetice arms depot explosion as a GRU sabotage scheme despite the president’s words that there are two possible theories on the blast.
Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ukraine: Russia’s GRU Had a Special Mission
The 2014 blast at a munitions depot in the Czech Republic was linked to the Russia-Ukraine war as the arms were reportedly supposed to be sent to the frontline in Donbas. Another link was the attempted assassination of Emilian Gebrev, the Bulgarian arms dealer, in 2015.
Coup Plot In Belarus Is Lukashenko’s Provocation
New details on a purported plot to kill the Belarusian leader confirm one thing: this is nothing but a provocation made up by Belarusian and Russian services. What Lukashenko said is somewhat unbelievable while any evidence submitted so far seems neither credible nor coherent.
Russia’s Novatek Sends Less Liquefied Natural Gas Abroad
Russia’s largest private natural gas producer seeks to reduce its LNG exports and is planning to add some shifts to its Arctic projects. Novatek––just like another Russian energy giant Gazprom––is looking for some fresh solution as Europe is reviewing its energy strategy by quitting oil and gas. One idea might be to go for ammonia instead of liquefied gas.
More Countries Expel Russian Diplomats in Solidarity with Czech Republic
Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are among states that on April 22 and 23 said they had declared persona non grata seven Russian diplomats in solidarity with the Czech Republic that accused Russian secret services of being behind a fatal explosion at an arms depot in 2014. The government in Prague urged NATO and the EU to take similar steps against Russian intelligence agents operating under diplomatic cover as those three years ago after the attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal.
Russia’s FSB Aircraft Stirs Tensions Between Russia and Colombia
Russia’s military and intelligence activities in Moscow-friendly states neighboring the Caribbean Sea raise concern in others as Russia breaks the existing rules. The latest example is a protest note from Colombia whose airspace was violated by a Russian aircraft.
Tensions rise in the Black Sea. Russia may blockade Ukraine’s ports
The entire Black Sea Fleet, 15 units of the Caspian Flotilla, 5 units of the Northern Fleet and the Baltic Fleet – the concentration of Russian naval forces in the waters bordering Ukraine translates into a further escalation of tensions in this part of Europe. It’s possible that it is at sea that Moscow is planning the most important part of the operation against Ukraine.
Three Possible Scenarios For Russia’s Oil Production
Russia’s oil production will grow for some ten years while noting a decline afterward, according to the Energy Ministry estimate drafting oil production in the country. The difference is in the possible scale of the increase and that of the decline and when the peak will take place.
Russia Reshuffles Governors Ahead of Elections. Shoigu Triumphs
Russia’s oil production will grow for some ten years while noting a decline afterward, according to the Energy Ministry estimate drafting oil production in the country. The difference is in the possible scale of the increase and that of the decline and when the peak will take place.
A Stab in Ukraine’s Back? Russian Exercises in Breakaway Transnistria
With the number of Russian troops hoarding on Ukraine’s border and the growing threat of war, Kyiv is in a somewhat perilous position. It sees threats alongside its whole eastern border with Russia, as well as in the north (from Belarus), and in the south as the Russian forces sit in Crimea whereas a far stronger Russian flotilla is operating in the Black Sea.
Tensions in the Black Sea: Turkey Supports Ukraine
Countries bordering the Black Sea are carefully observing tensions going up between Russia and Ukraine and the threat of war posed by the former state. It is notably Turkey that has in recent years built cordial ties with Russia. Also, it is a NATO member and––most importantly––it has boosted its position throughout the region.
Putin Signs Law Allowing Him To Stay In Power Until 2036
Two Russian diplomats flew back to Moscow on April 1 as Italy expelled them shortly before. Employees of the Russian embassy’s military attache were involved in a spy scandal as an Italian naval officer was detained on March 30 on spying charges, marking the most serious espionage incident since the Cold War. This may bring severe consequences since Italy is one of the countries within the European Union and NATO with the warmest relations with Russia. Another nation having such a cordial link to Russia is Bulgaria whose authorities smashed a Russian spy ring a dozen or so days ago.
Who Are Ukraine’s Reliable and Fake Allies
A friend in need is a friend indeed, a popular saying goes. Growing tensions between Moscow and Kyiv and the mounting threat to Ukraine make a good test checking true intentions of Kyiv’s Western partners.
Putin’s Dismissal. Tuva Leader Change
The resignation of the governor of Tuva seems surprising at first glance. Sholban Kara-ool ruled the republic for over a decade, enjoyed great popularity and, above all, ensured political stability and excellent election results for Vladimir Putin. Tuva is traditionally an area of political influence of the Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu, which, moreover, comes from there.
Russian Espionage Scandal in Italy
Two Russian diplomats flew back to Moscow on April 1 as Italy expelled them shortly before. Employees of the Russian embassy’s military attache were involved in a spy scandal as an Italian naval officer was detained on March 30 on spying charges, marking the most serious espionage incident since the Cold War. This may bring severe consequences since Italy is one of the countries within the European Union and NATO with the warmest relations with Russia. Another nation having such a cordial link to Russia is Bulgaria whose authorities smashed a Russian spy ring a dozen or so days ago.
Warsaw Institute
